Author: Dave Gomboc
Date: 01:08:52 12/18/99
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On December 17, 1999 at 15:25:24, Dann Corbit wrote: >On December 17, 1999 at 02:54:31, Dave Gomboc wrote: >[snip] >>>>The normal distribution does not accurately predict the occurance of large >>>>upsets. Elo himself discussed this in his book, which you can reference for >>>>further details. >>>Of course, for a single contest, it does not accurately predict anything. So >>>what does he say about large upsets? More frequent that predicted? Less >>>frequent? I don't have the book (does anyone know where to buy it from?) >> >>Upsets are more frequent than predicted when using a normal distribution. >> >>What I don't understand is why people don't take real tournament results and >>figure out the correct distribution. Maybe they actually do... <shrug> > >That's interesting, because it supports the opposite of the assertion that lower >rated players will never beat higher rated players if the difference is great. > >What is the stated reason for A.E.'s statements? Is it mathematical or >empirical? Empricial. I think that such a claim would have to be made based on observation, no? Dave
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