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Subject: Re: statistically about 120-130pts

Author: Paulo Soares

Date: 21:42:08 12/22/99

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On December 22, 1999 at 21:36:38, Charles Unruh wrote:

>On December 22, 1999 at 20:05:34, John Warfield wrote:
>
>>Hi
>>
>>  I think this is a nice game, Rebel actually outplays CM6555 tactically!
>>However CM6555 won the match 4-2. I thought this score was surprising since
>>Cm6555 ran on hardware much faster, I expected a six to 0 score.  Does anyone
>>know what the rating difference would be based on these six games? I know it is
>>to few games but what would a 4-2 score suggest?  70 Point difference?
>
>Statistically about 120-130 points. 4-2 victory
>
>
>Scoring Probability
>      Difference in Points
>                              Higher Rated
>                                                     Lower Rated
>              0
>                                  0.500
>                                                        0.500
>             10
>                                  0.514
>                                                        0.486
>             20
>                                  0.529
>                                                        0.471
>             30
>                                  0.543
>                                                        0.457
>             40
>                                  0.557
>                                                        0.443
>             50
>                                  0.571
>                                                        0.429
>             60
>                                  0.585
>                                                        0.415
>             70
>                                  0.599
>                                                        0.401
>             80
>                                  0.613
>                                                        0.387
>             90
>                                  0.627
>                                                        0.373
>             100
>                                  0.640
>                                                        0.360
>             110
>                                  0.653
>                                                        0.347
>             120
>                                  0.666
>>
>>
>>[Event "Match game 4"]
>>[Site "USA"]
>>[Date "1999.12.22"]
>>[Round "?"]
>>[White "CM6555Athlon 700"]
>>[Black "Century K6-350"]
>>[Result "0-1"]
>>[WhiteElo "2500"]
>>[BlackElo "2500"]
>>[ECO "C77"]
>>
>>1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Ba4 Nf6 5. d4 exd4 6. O-O Be7 7. Re1 b5
>>8. Bb3 d6 9. Bd5 Nxd5 10. exd5 Ne5 11. Nxd4 O-O 12. Nc3 Re8 13. Bf4 Bb7
>>14. Bxe5 dxe5 15. Rxe5 Bf6 16. Rxe8+ Qxe8 17. Qd2 Rd8 18. Re1 Qf8 19. Nf5
>>h6 20. a3 b4 21. Ne4 Bxb2 22. d6 Bxe4 23. Ne7+ Kh8 24. Qxb4 Bxa3 25. Qxe4
>>Rxd6 26. Qf3 Bb4 27. c3 Rf6 28. Nf5 Bc5 29. c4 g6 30. Qc3 Bxf2+ 31. Kxf2
>>Qg7 32. Re8+ Kh7 33. Kg3 Rxf5 34. Qxg7+ Kxg7 35. Ra8 a5 36. Ra6 Rc5 37.
>>Kf3 Rxc4 38. Rxa5 Kf6 39. Ra8 h5 40. Rc8 h4 41. Re8 g5 42. Re2 c5 0-1

And the margin of error?
Paulo Soares, from Brazil



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