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Subject: Re: statistically about 120-130pts

Author: Amir Ban
Date: 05:46:04 12/23/99
On December 23, 1999 at 00:42:08, Paulo Soares wrote:

>On December 22, 1999 at 21:36:38, Charles Unruh wrote:
>
>>On December 22, 1999 at 20:05:34, John Warfield wrote:
>>
>>>Hi
>>>
>>>  I think this is a nice game, Rebel actually outplays CM6555 tactically!
>>>However CM6555 won the match 4-2. I thought this score was surprising since
>>>Cm6555 ran on hardware much faster, I expected a six to 0 score.  Does anyone
>>>know what the rating difference would be based on these six games? I know it is
>>>to few games but what would a 4-2 score suggest?  70 Point difference?
>>
>>Statistically about 120-130 points. 4-2 victory
>>
>>
>>Scoring Probability
>>      Difference in Points
>>                              Higher Rated
>>                                                     Lower Rated
>>              0
>>                                  0.500
>>                                                        0.500
>>             10
>>                                  0.514
>>                                                        0.486
>>             20
>>                                  0.529
>>                                                        0.471
>>             30
>>                                  0.543
>>                                                        0.457
>>             40
>>                                  0.557
>>                                                        0.443
>>             50
>>                                  0.571
>>                                                        0.429
>>             60
>>                                  0.585
>>                                                        0.415
>>             70
>>                                  0.599
>>                                                        0.401
>>             80
>>                                  0.613
>>                                                        0.387
>>             90
>>                                  0.627
>>                                                        0.373
>>             100
>>                                  0.640
>>                                                        0.360
>>             110
>>                                  0.653
>>                                                        0.347
>>             120
>>                                  0.666
>>>
>>>
>>>[Event "Match game 4"]
>>>[Site "USA"]
>>>[Date "1999.12.22"]
>>>[Round "?"]
>>>[White "CM6555Athlon 700"]
>>>[Black "Century K6-350"]
>>>[Result "0-1"]
>>>[WhiteElo "2500"]
>>>[BlackElo "2500"]
>>>[ECO "C77"]
>>>
>>>1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Ba4 Nf6 5. d4 exd4 6. O-O Be7 7. Re1 b5
>>>8. Bb3 d6 9. Bd5 Nxd5 10. exd5 Ne5 11. Nxd4 O-O 12. Nc3 Re8 13. Bf4 Bb7
>>>14. Bxe5 dxe5 15. Rxe5 Bf6 16. Rxe8+ Qxe8 17. Qd2 Rd8 18. Re1 Qf8 19. Nf5
>>>h6 20. a3 b4 21. Ne4 Bxb2 22. d6 Bxe4 23. Ne7+ Kh8 24. Qxb4 Bxa3 25. Qxe4
>>>Rxd6 26. Qf3 Bb4 27. c3 Rf6 28. Nf5 Bc5 29. c4 g6 30. Qc3 Bxf2+ 31. Kxf2
>>>Qg7 32. Re8+ Kh7 33. Kg3 Rxf5 34. Qxg7+ Kxg7 35. Ra8 a5 36. Ra6 Rc5 37.
>>>Kf3 Rxc4 38. Rxa5 Kf6 39. Ra8 h5 40. Rc8 h4 41. Re8 g5 42. Re2 c5 0-1
>
>And the margin of error?
>Paulo Soares, from Brazil

4:2 ==> 121 +- 297 (95% confidence)

Amir
Re: statistically about 120-130pts Graham Laight 07:46:30 12/23/99
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