Author: Leon Stancliff
Date: 13:07:25 12/27/99
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I have a win expectancy chart from USCF which gives the expected percentage of wins at various point differentials. The difference in ratings which you have supplied is 105 points. The win expectancy for the higher player in this case is 64.6%. 64.6% of six games is 3.8 games. We would expect Rebel Century to win the entire match with either 3 1/2 to 2 1/2 or else 4.0 to 2.0, with more likelihood of 3 1/2 to 2 1/2. As well all know, in a small number of games the variation from the expected percentage can vary widely. The results from the games Rebel Century has already played at 40/2 against grandmasters and international masters shows just over 2500 for the grandmasters while playing on the AMD 600 and about 2480 when playing on slower hardware against the international masters. I for one sincerely believe that by the time the Russek match is completed, we will have sufficient evidence to establish a rating for Rebel Century which will be correct within 25 Elo rating points. I am also keenly interested in seeing what the new alliance of Rebel and Chess Tiger will produce. I really think Rebel is playing just over 2500 Elo on the AMD 600 Mhz. I think those who have been downplaying the ratings of the most powerful programs will be swallowing their adam's apple when Rebel-Tiger takes the stage!
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