Author: John Warfield
Date: 13:21:56 12/27/99
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On December 27, 1999 at 16:07:25, Leon Stancliff wrote: > I have a win expectancy chart from USCF which gives the expected percentage of >wins at various point differentials. The difference in ratings which you have >supplied is 105 points. The win expectancy for the higher player in this case is >64.6%. 64.6% of six games is 3.8 games. We would expect Rebel Century to win the >entire match with either 3 1/2 to 2 1/2 or else 4.0 to 2.0, with more likelihood >of 3 1/2 to 2 1/2. As well all know, in a small number of games the variation >from the expected percentage can vary widely. > The results from the games Rebel Century has already played at 40/2 against >grandmasters and international masters shows just over 2500 for the grandmasters >while playing on the AMD 600 and about 2480 when playing on slower hardware >against the international masters. > I for one sincerely believe that by the time the Russek match is completed, we >will have sufficient evidence to establish a rating for Rebel Century which will >be correct within 25 Elo rating points. > I am also keenly interested in seeing what the new alliance of Rebel and Chess >Tiger will produce. I really think Rebel is playing just over 2500 Elo on the >AMD 600 Mhz. I think those who have been downplaying the ratings of the most >powerful programs will be swallowing their adam's apple when Rebel-Tiger takes >the stage! I don't think they will be swallowing their adam's apple, for they will always have some excuse tucked away. For instance 1. The humans didn't play anti-computer chess So the ratings are bogus 2. Human had a bad cold the morning he got up to play the match 3. There was to much noise ect, ect, People will come up with all kinds of things in order to avoid being wrong. So I wouldn't look forward to your results. Bottom line there will never be any satisfactory way of establishing a grandmaster rating for computers if people don't want them to be grandmasters. Another way is to say that the computer must Earn a 2600 elo to be a real grandmaster, Knowing full well that this is impposible since a computer will never be allowed to compete with humans under normal tournament conditions.
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