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Subject: Re: ply vs elo

Author: walter irvin

Date: 11:33:09 01/06/00

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On January 06, 2000 at 13:22:41, Ricardo Gibert wrote:

>On January 06, 2000 at 11:58:00, walter irvin wrote:
>
>>what does it take to defeat a GM in a 6 game match?????? what ply does the
>>computer start pushing the GM back ????? to unify the guess it is nessisary to
>>stick with 1 program .also to pick a program most people have , so i choose
>>crafty .since every one is trying to figure out 40/2 hrs.lets figure what mhz is
>>needed to reach the different ply at 40/2 hr .
>>
>>ply        elo             mhz              available         score vs GM
>>1         1350              ?                 now                0-6
>>2         1400              ?                 now                0-6
>>3         1450              ?                 now                0-6
>>4         1500              ?                 now                0-6
>>5         1550              ?                 now                0-6
>>6         1600              ?                 now                0-6
>>7         1800              ?                 now                0-6
>>8         2000              ?                 now                0-6
>>9         2100              ?                 now                0-6
>>10        2200              ?                 now                0-6
>>11        2300              90 mhz +          now                0-6
>>12        2400              133 mhz +         now                1-5
>>13        2450              300 mhz +         now                1-5
>>14        2500              450 mhz +         now                2-4
>>15        2550              600 mhz +         now                2-4
>>16        2600              2 ghz +           now w/multi proc   3-3
>>17        2650              ?                 ??                 3-3
>>18        2700              ?                 ??                 4-2
>>19        2750              ?                 ??                 4-2
>>20        2800              ?                 ??                 5-1
>>21        2850              ?                 ??                 5-1
>>22        2900              ?                 ??                 6-0
>>
>>this is my (guess) i think beyond 22 ply its over for man vs machine .
>
>I don't believe your chart is close to accurate at all. For instance, every
>doubling of cpu speed is worth about 50-70 rating points depending on who you
>ask and if you assume an EBF of 3 or 4, then...
>
>Besides that, extrapolating to the extrema is "extremely" dubious.

i could be way off ?? i was just putting how hard the program was for me to beat
in the earlier ply's after that i had to go on how the program did vs other
programs . also i have noticed that the program jumps in elo at certain ply's .
if anyone has any views as to what the elo's for the different ply's i'd like to
see them to compare how close i am .



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