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Subject: Re: ply vs elo

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 13:45:46 01/06/00

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On January 06, 2000 at 11:58:00, walter irvin wrote:

>what does it take to defeat a GM in a 6 game match?????? what ply does the
>computer start pushing the GM back ????? to unify the guess it is nessisary to
>stick with 1 program .also to pick a program most people have , so i choose
>crafty .since every one is trying to figure out 40/2 hrs.lets figure what mhz is
>needed to reach the different ply at 40/2 hr .
>
>ply        elo             mhz              available         score vs GM
>1         1350              ?                 now                0-6
>2         1400              ?                 now                0-6
>3         1450              ?                 now                0-6
>4         1500              ?                 now                0-6
>5         1550              ?                 now                0-6
>6         1600              ?                 now                0-6
>7         1800              ?                 now                0-6
>8         2000              ?                 now                0-6
>9         2100              ?                 now                0-6
>10        2200              ?                 now                0-6
>11        2300              90 mhz +          now                0-6
>12        2400              133 mhz +         now                1-5
>13        2450              300 mhz +         now                1-5
>14        2500              450 mhz +         now                2-4
>15        2550              600 mhz +         now                2-4
>16        2600              2 ghz +           now w/multi proc   3-3
>17        2650              ?                 ??                 3-3
>18        2700              ?                 ??                 4-2
>19        2750              ?                 ??                 4-2
>20        2800              ?                 ??                 5-1
>21        2850              ?                 ??                 5-1
>22        2900              ?                 ??                 6-0
>
>this is my (guess) i think beyond 22 ply its over for man vs machine .


two issues.  First, your mhz ratings are off a bit.  It takes about 3x the
mhz to get one additional ply.  so from 12 (which takes about 200 ie a P6/200)
to 13 takes a 600mhz machine.  13 to 14 takes a 1.8 ghz machine.  etc.  That
slows the curve down a bit.

Second, I can't guess how a 22-ply crafty will play. It will be tactically
overwhelming for sure.  But I am not yet convinced that a GM can't steer the
game into positions where that tactical skill is less important than chess
knowledge.  So I will hedge my bet and not pick a ply where the machine will
become invincible.  I am not sure it exists for any kind of hardware I expect
to see in my lifetime...



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