Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 13:45:46 01/06/00
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On January 06, 2000 at 11:58:00, walter irvin wrote: >what does it take to defeat a GM in a 6 game match?????? what ply does the >computer start pushing the GM back ????? to unify the guess it is nessisary to >stick with 1 program .also to pick a program most people have , so i choose >crafty .since every one is trying to figure out 40/2 hrs.lets figure what mhz is >needed to reach the different ply at 40/2 hr . > >ply elo mhz available score vs GM >1 1350 ? now 0-6 >2 1400 ? now 0-6 >3 1450 ? now 0-6 >4 1500 ? now 0-6 >5 1550 ? now 0-6 >6 1600 ? now 0-6 >7 1800 ? now 0-6 >8 2000 ? now 0-6 >9 2100 ? now 0-6 >10 2200 ? now 0-6 >11 2300 90 mhz + now 0-6 >12 2400 133 mhz + now 1-5 >13 2450 300 mhz + now 1-5 >14 2500 450 mhz + now 2-4 >15 2550 600 mhz + now 2-4 >16 2600 2 ghz + now w/multi proc 3-3 >17 2650 ? ?? 3-3 >18 2700 ? ?? 4-2 >19 2750 ? ?? 4-2 >20 2800 ? ?? 5-1 >21 2850 ? ?? 5-1 >22 2900 ? ?? 6-0 > >this is my (guess) i think beyond 22 ply its over for man vs machine . two issues. First, your mhz ratings are off a bit. It takes about 3x the mhz to get one additional ply. so from 12 (which takes about 200 ie a P6/200) to 13 takes a 600mhz machine. 13 to 14 takes a 1.8 ghz machine. etc. That slows the curve down a bit. Second, I can't guess how a 22-ply crafty will play. It will be tactically overwhelming for sure. But I am not yet convinced that a GM can't steer the game into positions where that tactical skill is less important than chess knowledge. So I will hedge my bet and not pick a ply where the machine will become invincible. I am not sure it exists for any kind of hardware I expect to see in my lifetime...
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