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Subject: Re: Tiger - Century, 12-8 - Crushing Victory!

Author: blass uri

Date: 20:16:55 01/08/00

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On January 08, 2000 at 22:29:17, Robert Hyatt wrote:

<snipped>
>No it isn't...  this is about statistics and sampling theory.  The Elo
>rating system predicts game outcomes between players in the _same_ pool of
>players.

You cannot predict games outcomes between players even if the players are human
by one number.

suppose there are 2 player who score 50% against 2400 players

The first player is stable and score 80% against 2200 players and 20% against
2600 players.

The second player is unstable and scores 60% against 2200 players and 40%
against 2600 players.

what is the right elo for the 2 players.

The best guess is 2400 but you cannot predict if their outcome against 2600
players  by one number.

You need at least 2 numbers(rating and stability) to do a better prediction and
a better rating system

There are also cases when

A scores 60% against B
B scores 60% against C
and C scores 60% against A so information about the history games between the 2
players can also help in prediction of the outcome.

Knowing who is the white player is also important in prediction the outcome.

Uri



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