Author: blass uri
Date: 20:16:55 01/08/00
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On January 08, 2000 at 22:29:17, Robert Hyatt wrote: <snipped> >No it isn't... this is about statistics and sampling theory. The Elo >rating system predicts game outcomes between players in the _same_ pool of >players. You cannot predict games outcomes between players even if the players are human by one number. suppose there are 2 player who score 50% against 2400 players The first player is stable and score 80% against 2200 players and 20% against 2600 players. The second player is unstable and scores 60% against 2200 players and 40% against 2600 players. what is the right elo for the 2 players. The best guess is 2400 but you cannot predict if their outcome against 2600 players by one number. You need at least 2 numbers(rating and stability) to do a better prediction and a better rating system There are also cases when A scores 60% against B B scores 60% against C and C scores 60% against A so information about the history games between the 2 players can also help in prediction of the outcome. Knowing who is the white player is also important in prediction the outcome. Uri
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