Author: Charles Unruh
Date: 06:10:53 01/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On January 12, 2000 at 01:08:10, Peter Kappler wrote: >On January 11, 2000 at 21:41:01, Leon Stancliff wrote: > >> In my opinion the question as to whether the top microcomputer programs can >>play at grandmaster level has been answered. The average rating for the >>opponents of Rebel Century in the twenty games actually played was 2510 Elo. The >>average Mhz rating of the computers was 498. Rebel won by 11-9 which gave it >>55%. > >I think something is wrong with your list of games. > >There have been 21 games played at 40/2, with Rebel scoring 5 wins, 10 draws, >and 6 losses. Here's a complete list: > >Player Elo Rebel Hardware >Sorin 2524 0.5 K6/3-600 >Rohde 2585 0 K6/3-600 >Rohde 2585 0.5 K6/3-600 >Hoffman 2501 0 K6/3-600 >Anand 2795 0.5 K6/2-450 >Anand 2795 0 K6/2-450 >Ruzele 2515 0.5 K6/3-600 >Krivonosov 2432 0.5 P2-400 >Zapolskis 2399 1 K6/2-300 >Grabliauskas 2466 0.5 P2-350 >Sherbakov 2541 1 K6/3-600 >Zagorskis 2486 1 K6/3-600 >Grabliauskas 2466 0 P3-500 >Sakalauskas 2450 0 P2-350 >Krivonosov 2432 0.5 K6/2-300 >Baburin 2593 0.5 K6/3-600 >Sherbakov 2552 0 K6/3-600 >Russek 2398 1 K6/3-450 >Russek 2398 0.5 K6/3-450 >Russek 2398 0.5 K6/3-450 >Russek 2398 1 K6/3-450 > >By my numbers that's a 2491 performance rating. 2491 and you are counting games it lost using a mere P350 forget about the 50 points YOU pretty much say below it might probably get on faster hardware give it the credit of 9 points! That's 2500(GM strength)running on good hardware by your own analysis how can you argue otherwise? Certainly a strong IM-level >performance, but not quite GM strength, and well short of what would be >necessary to actually achieve a GM norm. > >Of course, Rebel wasn't playing on the fastest currently available hardware, but >at 40/2 it doesn't make a huge difference. How much better it would score on an >Athlon 750 is another debate entirely - but I seriously doubt it would even >amount to another 50 ELO points if you're talking about 40/2 games against >humans. > > >> The point differential for 55% wins is 35. When we add 35 points to 2510 we >>have 2545 Elo. Rebel Century does play at grandmaster level. The question now >>will become, "Where does the top micro program rate among the world list of >>grandmasters?" >> An Elo rating of 2545 would place Rebel Century at the 219th position out of >>652 living grandmasters. This places the program in the top third of the GM >>list. The only real live question now is "How long will it be before the top >>computers will among the top one hundred?" Will it happen within three years? > >To me, it's more interesting to ask how long before it can crack the top 10, >which is roughly 2700 FIDE. I think it might still be a very long time. > >--Peter
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