Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 09:09:32 01/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On January 12, 2000 at 09:10:53, Charles Unruh wrote: >On January 12, 2000 at 01:08:10, Peter Kappler wrote: > >>On January 11, 2000 at 21:41:01, Leon Stancliff wrote: >> >>> In my opinion the question as to whether the top microcomputer programs can >>>play at grandmaster level has been answered. The average rating for the >>>opponents of Rebel Century in the twenty games actually played was 2510 Elo. The >>>average Mhz rating of the computers was 498. Rebel won by 11-9 which gave it >>>55%. >> >>I think something is wrong with your list of games. >> >>There have been 21 games played at 40/2, with Rebel scoring 5 wins, 10 draws, >>and 6 losses. Here's a complete list: >> >>Player Elo Rebel Hardware >>Sorin 2524 0.5 K6/3-600 >>Rohde 2585 0 K6/3-600 >>Rohde 2585 0.5 K6/3-600 >>Hoffman 2501 0 K6/3-600 >>Anand 2795 0.5 K6/2-450 >>Anand 2795 0 K6/2-450 >>Ruzele 2515 0.5 K6/3-600 >>Krivonosov 2432 0.5 P2-400 >>Zapolskis 2399 1 K6/2-300 >>Grabliauskas 2466 0.5 P2-350 >>Sherbakov 2541 1 K6/3-600 >>Zagorskis 2486 1 K6/3-600 >>Grabliauskas 2466 0 P3-500 >>Sakalauskas 2450 0 P2-350 >>Krivonosov 2432 0.5 K6/2-300 >>Baburin 2593 0.5 K6/3-600 >>Sherbakov 2552 0 K6/3-600 >>Russek 2398 1 K6/3-450 >>Russek 2398 0.5 K6/3-450 >>Russek 2398 0.5 K6/3-450 >>Russek 2398 1 K6/3-450 >> >>By my numbers that's a 2491 performance rating. > >2491 and you are counting games it lost using a mere P350 forget about the 50 >points YOU pretty much say below it might probably get on faster hardware give >it the credit of 9 points! That's 2500(GM strength)running on good hardware by >your own analysis how can you argue otherwise? > No question it could get into the low 2500s on faster hardware. I guess I've always considered the barrier for GM to be higher than 2500. I think it takes closer to a 2600-level performance to earn the title. But, I suppose you could argue that it's already playing at a "weak" GM level. I once played a game against GM Aaron Summerscale, who had a very low FIDE rating for a GM (somewhere in the 2400s). --Peter >Certainly a strong IM-level >>performance, but not quite GM strength, and well short of what would be >>necessary to actually achieve a GM norm. >> >>Of course, Rebel wasn't playing on the fastest currently available hardware, but >>at 40/2 it doesn't make a huge difference. How much better it would score on an >>Athlon 750 is another debate entirely - but I seriously doubt it would even >>amount to another 50 ELO points if you're talking about 40/2 games against >>humans. >> >> >>> The point differential for 55% wins is 35. When we add 35 points to 2510 we >>>have 2545 Elo. Rebel Century does play at grandmaster level. The question now >>>will become, "Where does the top micro program rate among the world list of >>>grandmasters?" >>> An Elo rating of 2545 would place Rebel Century at the 219th position out of >>>652 living grandmasters. This places the program in the top third of the GM >>>list. The only real live question now is "How long will it be before the top >>>computers will among the top one hundred?" Will it happen within three years? >> >>To me, it's more interesting to ask how long before it can crack the top 10, >>which is roughly 2700 FIDE. I think it might still be a very long time. >> >>--Peter
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