Author: Frank Schubert
Date: 12:03:26 01/15/00
Hi everybody,
40 games played by each program so far. Time to make some first statistics
of Enriques superb tournament:
<pre>
General Statistics:
Games : 140
White Wins : 49 (35.0 %)
Black Wins : 30 (21.4 %)
Draws : 61 (43.6 %)
White Perf. : 56.8 %
Black Perf. : 43.2 %
ECO A = 14 Games (10.0 %)
ECO B = 35 Games (25.0 %)
ECO C = 17 Games (12.1 %)
ECO D = 41 Games (29.3 %)
ECO E = 33 Games (23.6 %)
Rating List:
Program Elo + - Games Score Av.Op. Draws
1 Junior 6.0 : 2665 101 74 40 60.0 % 2594 45.0 %
2 Fritz 6a : 2641 96 86 40 63.7 % 2542 37.5 %
3 Hiarcs 7.32 : 2615 111 75 40 52.5 % 2597 40.0 %
4 Rebel-Tiger 12.0e : 2598 106 59 40 56.2 % 2554 57.5 %
5 Shredder 4 : 2597 80 106 40 43.8 % 2640 37.5 %
6 Nimzo 7.32 : 2592 76 102 40 41.2 % 2653 42.5 %
7 Century : 2493 78 92 40 32.5 % 2619 45.0 %
</pre>
Shredder and Nimzo had the strongest opponents so far. Most of the draws
were played by Tiger (proportion 57.5 %).
Elo calculation was done by iteration algorithm.
Margins of error roughly between 60 and 110 Elo's (given with 95 % confidence).
Distance between Junior and Nimzo is only 73 points. That means nearly
everything can happen during the next rounds. Only Century seems to be
"out of race", but compare the upper margin of Century (2493+78 = 2571) with
the lower margin of Fritz (2641-86 = 2555) and you see that Century can
still hope to reach a better rank.
Also consider the fact that for halving the error margins four times as much
games are necessary. Therefore I expect the margins to be slightly above
50 Elo's at the end of the tournament (120 games for each program).
Finally the single statistics:
<pre>
(1) Junior 6.0 : 40 (+ 15,= 18,- 7), 60.0 %
Shredder 4 : 20 (+ 6,= 10,- 4), 55.0 %
Nimzo 7.32 : 20 (+ 9,= 8,- 3), 65.0 %
(2) Fritz 6a : 40 (+ 18,= 15,- 7), 63.8 %
Nimzo 7.32 : 20 (+ 6,= 9,- 5), 52.5 %
Century : 20 (+ 12,= 6,- 2), 75.0 %
(3) Hiarcs 7.32 : 40 (+ 13,= 16,- 11), 52.5 %
Shredder 4 : 20 (+ 9,= 5,- 6), 57.5 %
Rebel-Tiger 12.0e : 20 (+ 4,= 11,- 5), 47.5 %
(4) Rebel-Tiger 12.0e : 40 (+ 11,= 23,- 6), 56.2 %
Century : 20 (+ 6,= 12,- 2), 60.0 %
Hiarcs 7.32 : 20 (+ 5,= 11,- 4), 52.5 %
(5) Shredder 4 : 40 (+ 10,= 15,- 15), 43.8 %
Junior 6.0 : 20 (+ 4,= 10,- 6), 45.0 %
Hiarcs 7.32 : 20 (+ 6,= 5,- 9), 42.5 %
(4) Nimzo 7.32 : 40 (+ 8,= 17,- 15), 41.2 %
Junior 6.0 : 20 (+ 3,= 8,- 9), 35.0 %
Fritz 6a : 20 (+ 5,= 9,- 6), 47.5 %
(6) Century : 40 (+ 4,= 18,- 18), 32.5 %
Fritz 6a : 20 (+ 2,= 6,- 12), 25.0 %
Rebel-Tiger 12.0e : 20 (+ 2,= 12,- 6), 40.0 %
</pre>
Source: ELOStat 1.0
If you found the results interesting I will post the new table after each round.
Frank
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