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Subject: Re: crafty beats fritz6 15-9

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 20:50:48 01/18/00

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On January 18, 2000 at 22:41:57, Michael Neish wrote:
[snip]
>What do others think?
By george, I do believe he's got it.

Play four games with two equal computer programs.  The win expectancy is 0.5,
hence the odds of getting zero points for program 'a' is about 6% and for
program 'b' is about 6%.  Hence the odds of a complete 4-0 blasting (for one or
the other) is about 12%. I'll bet if any short tournament were held between two
approximately equal computers, if a 4-0 result were posted here, we would
immediately hear cries of "clear superiority" for the winning system.

You can never be sure what will happen with any given experiment.  In fact, for
a single experiment of flipping a coin, most people are stunned to learn that
the sequence:
h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h h
has *exactly the same* probability as:
h t h t h t h t h t h t h t h t h t h t h
or any other single sequence outcome.

It's only when we summ them all up that they average out to the expected value.




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