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Subject: Re: next deep blue

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 10:02:09 01/23/00

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On January 23, 2000 at 03:44:56, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:

>On January 21, 2000 at 16:23:47, Tom Kerrigan wrote:
>
>>On January 21, 2000 at 15:10:32, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>After creating "cray blitz" I found it difficult to think about trying to
>>>write a program for a Micro.  And it took a lot of time/effort to do so.  After
>>>building DB, it would take Hsu a lot of time/effort to try to write a program
>>>for a Cray, and then more time/effort to think about a PC-based program.
>>
>>Well, presumably he wasn't an idiot and wrote the SP program in something
>>portable. Then all he would have to do is write a quiescence search function and
>>port the DB evaluation function. After designing the function in hardware,
>>remaking it in software should seem positively trivial. He already knows all the
>>terms anyway. How long could it possibly take? Definitely less than a week for a
>>"first draft," I would guess.
>>
>>Here's another thing I was just thinking about. DB had a "fast eval" that took 3
>>cycles, and the full eval took something like 11 cycles. Most of the time, the
>>fast eval was good enough. Presumably the 40,000 instructions that he reported
>>was for the full-blown, 11 cycle eval.
>>
>>Here is my best guess at how fast a DB program would run on a PIII. Assume 75%
>>of the time it takes 11k instructions to eval, and 25% of the time, it takes
>>40k. So that's an average of 18k. Now, figuring that the PIII almost always
>>retires 1.5 instructions per clock cycle, it takes 12k clock cycles per node.
>>Now assume you're running at 800MHz. That's 66000 NPS, and it's still being
>>fairly conservative (with the 75%). That strikes me as a perfectly reasonable
>>speed; if I'm not mistaken, some strong micro programs run that fast on the same
>>hardware.
>>
>>As for putting in the effort to make such a program, I think that's a no-brainer
>>too. Imagine how much money he could make off of selling the DB program for PCs.
>>A million people would want a copy, the first day it's announced. And it
>>wouldn't even matter how strong it is. He could just write on the back of the
>>box, "This program runs 3000 times faster on the official DB hardware!" and
>>everybody will think it's terrific.
>>
>>Maybe you can think of a reason why he hasn't done this already...
>
>ASML sells machines to produce 0.18 micron for 13 million dutch guilder,
>roughly 6 million US$.
>
>Then assuming it has same speed as DB, Hsu gets confronted with the
>fact that he gotta do at least a 100 times less calls a second
>to the hardware, so he needs to do roughly 2.5 ply extra in hardware,
>say at 6 to 7 ply.
>
>This automatically means that less gets done in the search of the general
>purpose processor, so hash can not get used there. Hash at the 0.18
>chessprocessor can't be done either of course, so that's an immense problem
>when trying to search above say 9 ply, knowing that deep blue in crucial
>positions got to 10 ply.
>
>Vincent
>
>>-Tom


Vincent:

Deep blue did _not_ get to 10 plies in critical positions.  I have said this
for 3 years now.  The output logs clearly show this.  They got to 10-11 plies
in _software_.  Plus another 4 plies in hardware.  10+4 does not equal 10.



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