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Subject: Re: next deep blue

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 19:41:21 01/23/00

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On January 23, 2000 at 17:23:23, José de Jesús García Ruvalcaba wrote:

>On January 23, 2000 at 12:46:36, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>[big snip]
>>Deep Thought's processor was a 1987 piece of hardware.  By 1995 it had proven
>>itself to perform at a GM level, with three numbers you can choose from.  An
>>official USCF rating of 2551 over almost 50 games.  A TPR over its best 25
>>consecutive games of 2650.  And finally if you only count deep thought games
>>without the first few which had horrible hardware problems, it had a TPR of
>>2590.
>>
>>All are impressive.  _all_ are 1986 hardware (the single processor version,
>>called "chiptest" first played in the 1986 ACM tournament.)
>>
>>So 1986 hardware produced a true GM-level machine, based on enough games that it
>>can't be considered a fluke or accident.
>>
>
>	Sorry Bob, but I definitely do not consider these achievements as "true
>GM-level". Feel free to disagree.
>
>>Today, Rebel is trying to produce the same result, on hardware that is 14 years
>>newer.  It is _very_ close to 2500. It isn't as close to 2650 (by taking the
>>best 25 games vs humans).  But it might make 2500 by the Summer with a little
>>luck.
>>
>
>	Rebel is playing against FIDE rated players. The 2650 you mention is USCF.


Check out the players.  USCF (at the top) is typically no more than 50 points
above FIDE.  Ken Sloan has a detailed list on his web page in the department
here...  and he did a lot of analysis to correlate FIDE to USCF. the +100 or
more is generally wrong.




>
>>With the above data, how far _ahead_ of Rebel (in terms of time) would you say
>>DB-2 is?  Rebel has yet to do what 1986 hardware has done.  No other program
>>has yet produced a GM-class rating over 25 games.  My guess is, as it always has
>>been, at _least_ 10 years behind.
>>
>>We can discuss any of the above that you like, of course...
>>
>>We have DT's results documented quite well.  We have (thanks to Enrique)
>>Rebel's results so far.  A few more months will push this to 25 solid
>>games...  1986 vs 1999 hardware.  fairly close comparison in performance.
>>
>>Of course, we have the problem of the 1997 version of the Hardware to deal
>>with. :)



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