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Subject: Re: DB just another program

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 05:16:55 01/27/00

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Just a few points to ponder.

1. SSDF shows no decline in computer strength with
   more MHZ (or Specint).
   SSDF: http://home3.swipnet.se/~w-36794/ssdf/nr000.htm
   Specint: http://www.specbench.org/

2. The DarkThought team has done research in this area.
   DarkThought: http://wwwipd.ira.uka.de/Tichy/DarkThought/
   Also see: http://www.icdchess.com/ccc/message.html?92439

3. Moor's Law gives doubling mp speed every 18 months.
   See:  www.intel.com

4. Programmers are very good at getting the most out of
   each new mp.  I believe the current commercial programmers
   are very good (IMHO).

5. If doubling gets 50 to 70 points (I will be conservative,
   but I am not sure that is needed) then in 9 years we will
   see programs/hw with strength 50*6 = 350 points above
   todays SSDF rating (if you look at the SSDF list, the rate
   is rising faster than that).

I do not think that comparing to DB provides any useful
information on the strength of today's programs.  DB is
retired and if anyone wanted to use today's ASIC technology,
the resulting program would be superior (IMHO).

Today's programs on 400 MHZ Intel and AMD mp's are above
average GM strength.  In ten years, we will be amazed when
anyone beats them (but someone will win a one or two, IMHO).
I will update program/hw vs human results when we get some
more games in (Israel League for example).  :)

Best Regards,
Chris Carson



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