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Subject: Re: The art of debate

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 13:45:50 01/27/00

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On January 27, 2000 at 16:26:46, Tom Kerrigan wrote:

>On January 27, 2000 at 13:17:32, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>The point is on "what" architecture?  40K on a sparc == 20K on an X86.
>
>Not really. You have been arguing for a long time that the DB evaluation
>function could not be implemented on a PC simply because it is too expensive. My
>goal is simply to "prove" that it's not too expensive, and by extension, some PC
>programs probably have equal (possibly better) functions. This "proof" doesn't
>require the exact number of instructions. FHH's estimate could be off by a
>factor of 2, and the function would still not be too expensive.
>
>>Even more important, is deriving that 40K estimate.  It would take a _lot_
>>of thought to come up with a real number, because hardware design doesn't
>>translate to "N instructions" trivially.  IE I suspect that the number 40K
>>is just a big number that was used to illustrate how much stuff DB is doing
>>in the hardware chips using parallel circuits.
>
>I think this theory is deeply insulting to FHH. He has published his estimate in
>a well-regarded and widely-read journal, and he didn't give any HINT of a
>warning that the estimate has any error at all. By saying that 40k "is just a
>big number" you are attacking his professional integrity

I don't see any deep, personal insult, and I have written professional,
technical papers.  Since the term is 40K (a rather round figure) it's pretty
obvious that it is an estimate.  Now, I doubt very much that it will be off by
more than 50% unless you are talking about a chip different that whatever it was
Hsu was considering.  But we don't even know what that was, do we?

>Let's say you're trying to sell your house. You know that your house is pretty
>big, so you place an advertisement in the newspaper saying that it's 8 million
>square feet. Somebody comes to look at the house and points out that it's
>nowhere near 8 million square feet. Would you say, "Oh, yeah, it actually takes
>some effort to measure the size of a house, so I just figured I would convey the
>impression that it's big." No, you wouldn't say that, because it's lying. And
>neither would Hsu.
>
>I think it would actually be fairly easy to come up with an estimate like this.
>You just go through all the terms you have, and imagine how you would implement
>them in software. Guess at how many instructions it would take and add
>everything up. For example, if you know that finding a doubled pawn takes about
>5 instructions, and you think that you could find an isolated pawn the same way,
>you can guess that it's another 5 instructions. And so on.

I don't think we can extrapolate from an estimate to a wild hyperbole.  If Hsu
had meant an actual count, he could have said something like:
It took 45,132 Intel PII instructions to perform the exact same evaluation for
position 'X'.

Since it is obviously going to vary enormously from position to position, it
*can't* be anything _but_ an estimate.

I think (for whatever target chip he had in mind) we can safely assume he was
talking about 20-80K instructions.  To assume that he must have meant an
absolute figure is much more of a stretch than to imagine it to be an estimate.
IMO-YMMV.



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