Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 11:34:14 01/28/00
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On January 28, 2000 at 14:15:40, Christophe Theron wrote: >On January 28, 2000 at 13:56:38, Dann Corbit wrote: [snip] speaking of this: >>I think both positions are not correct. We see an experiment and assume it is >>repeatable because it repeated. I flip a penny twenty times and it comes up >>heads 18 out of 20. What are the odds it will be a head on the next flip? It >>is 0.5 out of 1, the same as if it had been 18 tails out of 20. We watch a >>brilliant game and think that we can draw from that that player x is much >>stronger than player y. The truth of the matter is that we probably understand >>the play of neither x nor y since they are hundreds of times better than we are >>anyway. >> >>The ability of a player, whether man or machine, can be judged rationally only >>by a purely mathematical basis. Observing a few games and drawing a conclusion >>is the same sort of science as burning witches and eating mercury to live >>forever. Seemed like a good thing to do at the time, but it did not have the >>scientific basis it purported to possess. > Christophe said: >I would not have expressed this better myself. > >This is not going to make both of us popular though, because many peoples have >almost-religious beliefs about the computer chess topic. I think the problem is that we turn things into legends. Fisher was a legend. Kasparov is a legend. Don't you feel a funny tingle when you even mouth the name? Deep Blue is also a legend. We hold our legends in a special kind of awe and how dare anyone to speak against them! "Odds are good" that Fischer was the best player of his day. "Odds are good" that Kasparov is the best living player. "Odds are good" that Deep Blue was a very strong chess machine. does not sound nearly as exciting or bold as a statement like: "Fischer was the best player ever to grace the surface of the planet!" and things of that nature. [In something akin to Godwin's law, this thread must now die a terrible death -- I have mouthed the name of Fischer several times.] Don't get me wrong. I know how truly great the best players are. I could never beat any of them, nor could 99.9999% of the earth's population. They have my respect and even admiration (for their play at least -- often not for their behavior). "How darest thou speak ye against the very gods!" said the magistrate. ;-)
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