Author: blass uri
Date: 16:49:38 02/23/00
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On February 23, 2000 at 18:17:29, Dann Corbit wrote: >On February 23, 2000 at 16:33:18, blass uri wrote: >[snip] >>I think that the probabilities are based on wrong assumptions. >> >>Suppose people with 2400 earn 36% of the points against people with 2500 and >>people with 2300 earn 36% of the points against people with 2400. >> >>what will be the result of people with 2300 against people with 2500? > >24% > >>I have no reason to believe that it is the number that the theory suggests >>because the theory was based on some assumptions and not on investigation of >>games and I have no reason to assume that the assumptions are correct. > >The theory is based on mathematics. It is simply turning physical measurements >into probability estimates for outcomes. I know that the theory is based on mathematics but it is possible to do a different theory that say that if people with 2400 earn 36% of the points against people with 2500 and people with 2300 earn 36% of the points against people with 2400 then people with 2300 earn 26% of the points against people with 2500 I see no reason to assume that 24% is correct and not 26% or 22% unless 24% is based on practical results of games and I know that the probabilities are not based on practical results of games(I know that the probabilities are based on the assumption that the ability of players has a normal distribution with 200 wlo standard deviation) The only way to have a better guess about the probabilities is to count results of games between people with 100 elo difference and between people with 200 elo difference but I do not know about somebody who did it. Uri
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