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Subject: Re: Some thougths about statistics

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 10:34:35 02/24/00

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On February 24, 2000 at 06:17:12, blass uri wrote:

>On February 24, 2000 at 05:16:48, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>ELO is self adjusting.
>>
>>Programs that learn will rise in ELO.
>>
>>Programs that repeat the same mistakes will drop in ELO.
>
>This is not the problem.
>The problem is that programs that learn can get better rating if they play more
>games against program that do not learn.
>
>Suppose the ssdf plays 1000 games between Fritz5.32(p200) and shredder2(p200)
>that does not learn and Fritz5.32 wins 990:10
>
>Fritz5.32(p200) is going to lead the ssdf list and Fritz5.32 on faster hardware
>is going to have lower rating only because you let Fritz5.32(p200) to play 1000
>games against a program that does not learn when other programs played not more
>than 40 games.
>
>1000 games between 2 opponents does not happen but it does not change the fact
>that the there are errors in the rating because of the fact that the number of
>games against programs like shredder2(p200) is not exactly the same for all the
>programs.
>
>The errors are not big like my extreme example but there are errors.

I don't think it is a problem, rather it is a correction.  If (for instance) a
program can be beaten by the exact same line 100% the actual ELO of that program
is (or should be) zero.  Aggressively learning programs against programs that do
not learn at all will eventually stomp them out of existance.



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