Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 14:32:29 02/29/00
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On February 29, 2000 at 11:40:46, Ed Panek wrote: >On February 29, 2000 at 08:42:36, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On February 29, 2000 at 01:13:38, Georg Langrath wrote: >> >>>I tink that you can measure the speed of a analyze in nods per second. When will >>>a pc be comabarable with Deep Blue with that increasing in hardware every year >>>that is now? I think that it must be so some time in future. >>> >>>Georg >> >> >>Not easy to answer, but I would guess that the speed of deep blue is about >>1,000 times faster than the fastest program of today, based on the fastest >>program going 1M nodes per second, while DB could peak at 1B nodes per >>second. It averaged about 200M, but then it also had some complex eval stuff >>that would slow that 1M nps program down by a factor of 5-10 probably >> >>If you assume 1000x, with a doubling of machine speed every year (which is >>very optimistic) then it will take about 10 years to catch up. >> >>all of that analysis has lots of assumptions, however... > > > >Unless there is some incredible watershed breakthrough in processor technology > >Ed True. But I have been involved in computing since 1968, and there has been no "incredible watershed breakthrough in processor technology" for the past 32 years. Nothing suggests (to me) that one is forthcoming within the next 10+ years.
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