Author: Graham Laight
Date: 04:37:55 03/01/00
Go up one level in this thread
On February 29, 2000 at 17:32:29, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On February 29, 2000 at 11:40:46, Ed Panek wrote: > >>On February 29, 2000 at 08:42:36, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On February 29, 2000 at 01:13:38, Georg Langrath wrote: >>> >>>>I tink that you can measure the speed of a analyze in nods per second. When will >>>>a pc be comabarable with Deep Blue with that increasing in hardware every year >>>>that is now? I think that it must be so some time in future. >>>> >>>>Georg >>> >>> >>>Not easy to answer, but I would guess that the speed of deep blue is about >>>1,000 times faster than the fastest program of today, based on the fastest >>>program going 1M nodes per second, while DB could peak at 1B nodes per >>>second. It averaged about 200M, but then it also had some complex eval stuff >>>that would slow that 1M nps program down by a factor of 5-10 probably >>> >>>If you assume 1000x, with a doubling of machine speed every year (which is >>>very optimistic) then it will take about 10 years to catch up. >>> >>>all of that analysis has lots of assumptions, however... >> >> >> >>Unless there is some incredible watershed breakthrough in processor technology >> >>Ed > > >True. But I have been involved in computing since 1968, and there has been >no "incredible watershed breakthrough in processor technology" for the past 32 >years. Nothing suggests (to me) that one is forthcoming within the next 10+ >years. There are companies out there making multi-processor machines in a low cost way. What is required is not so much a technology breakthrough, but a marketing breakthrough. Multi-processor computers needs to become both a big market and a competitive market. Pentium processors are a big and competitive market. Trouble is, I don't think they're the best architechture to put together in large numbers on the same motherboard. Hey people - lets all find good reasons to need lots of processing power, stop buying Pentiums, standardise on a multiprocessor archtechture, and start buying it in large numbers! -g
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