Author: Andrew Dados
Date: 10:41:46 03/01/00
Go up one level in this thread
On March 01, 2000 at 06:31:01, Frank Schubert wrote: >On February 29, 2000 at 13:20:35, Masciulli Gianluigi wrote: > >>On February 29, 2000 at 12:48:07, Tony Hedlund wrote: >> >>>On February 29, 2000 at 09:52:06, Masciulli Gianluigi wrote: >>> >>>tscp15's 90.2% against 1700 = 2062 >>>fortress161's 96.9% against 1700 = 2232 >>>golem01's 0% against 1700 is < 1000 >>>fortress16's 58.8% against tscp15 indicates a difference with 64 points, >>>2179-2115. >> >>thanks tony for your answer. >> >>ok ... that's the easy part but ... >>you see you listed frotress TWICE with perf. 2232 and 2179-2115. >>I need the global performance. >> >>> >>>>One more: I'd like to have extimes about probability that performances match the >>>>true elo on the base of games played (ssdf Like)... any matematician out there? >>> >>>This question I do not understand, sorry. >> >>I'll try to explay this better: >> >>if I play 1 billion game and the result between prog.A (elo ??) and Prog.B .. >>prog.C prog.D (and all have elo 2000) is esactly 50% >>I can say that the elo of prog A in that set of programs is almost esactly >>2000. >>but what about the same result after only 50 games. >>may be there is some difference between elo and perf. in this case. >>may be i can say, in this case that the elo of the program A is 2000 with an >>error margin of 50 point (in other words there is probability .9 that the true >>elo is within the range 1950 -> 2050). >>I want to calc the error margin. >>I hope is clear now. >> >>gianluigi > > >Hi, > >in a few days you can download my program ELOStat which was used to calculate >the statistics of the Cadaqués tourney (look at >http://www.computerschach.de/tourn/frank01.htm) >ELOStat also gives the error margins you mentioned. I will post ist here, >when I am ready. > >Frank I assume you know then the formula to calculate the error margin(s), given probability... That is, elo = x +/- margin with probability of y%. I am looking for function y%=F(margin,number of games,etc). Can you post it here? Thanks in advance. -Andrew-
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