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Subject: Re: When will a pc be as fast as Deep Blue?

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 17:22:09 03/01/00

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On March 01, 2000 at 14:43:39, Pete Galati wrote:

>On March 01, 2000 at 07:37:55, Graham Laight wrote:
>
>>On February 29, 2000 at 17:32:29, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On February 29, 2000 at 11:40:46, Ed Panek wrote:
>>>
>>>>On February 29, 2000 at 08:42:36, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On February 29, 2000 at 01:13:38, Georg Langrath wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>I tink that you can measure the speed of a analyze in nods per second. When will
>>>>>>a pc be comabarable with Deep Blue with that increasing in hardware every year
>>>>>>that is now? I think that it must be so some time in future.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Georg
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Not easy to answer, but I would guess that the speed of deep blue is about
>>>>>1,000 times faster than the fastest program of today, based on the fastest
>>>>>program going 1M nodes per second, while DB could peak at 1B nodes per
>>>>>second.  It averaged about 200M, but then it also had some complex eval stuff
>>>>>that would slow that 1M nps program down by a factor of 5-10 probably
>>>>>
>>>>>If you assume 1000x, with a doubling of machine speed every year (which is
>>>>>very optimistic) then it will take about 10 years to catch up.
>>>>>
>>>>>all of that analysis has lots of assumptions, however...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Unless there is some incredible watershed breakthrough in processor technology
>>>>
>>>>Ed
>>>
>>>
>>>True.  But I have been involved in computing since 1968, and there has been
>>>no "incredible watershed breakthrough in processor technology" for the past 32
>>>years.  Nothing suggests (to me) that one is forthcoming within the next 10+
>>>years.
>>
>>There are companies out there making multi-processor machines in a low cost way.
>>What is required is not so much a technology breakthrough, but a marketing
>>breakthrough. Multi-processor computers needs to become both a big market and a
>>competitive market.
>>
>>Pentium processors are a big and competitive market. Trouble is, I don't think
>>they're the best architechture to put together in large numbers on the same
>>motherboard.
>>
>>Hey people - lets all find good reasons to need lots of processing power, stop
>>buying Pentiums, standardise on a multiprocessor archtechture, and start buying
>>it in large numbers!
>>
>>-g
>
>Ok, you got a few extra bucks on you that we can all borrow?  Wouldn't I have a
>Quad Xeon if I could afford one?  My 586 is old and slow because I don't have
>the money to replace it, truth is I'd be thrilled to have a 350mhz computer
>right now.  So there is that money factor.
>
>But yeah, they don't put together large numbers of multi-processor machines
>because most people have no use for one, and that "most people" is what pays
>their bills.  Us computer Chess fans are just another flicked bugger to computer
>manufacturers in general, but a good specialized market.
>
>Pete


Actually the number of dual-cpu machines is quite enormous.  I have seen
some eye-popping numbers quoted by MB manufacturers...  One day the quads
will get 'there'.



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