Author: blass uri
Date: 00:58:13 03/02/00
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On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote: >On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote: > >>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software. If their >>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top >>guns. >> >>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed. >>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII. >>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue. >>Do the math: >>2 ^ 10 = 1024 (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster) >> >>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months) >> >>180 months equals 15 years >> >>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get >>2015) > >What about today? > >Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files >on the IBM site. > >Ed 1)The definition of fast searcher is by nodes/second and not by plies/second so it is logical to ignore the plies/depth for the prediction in the subject. 2)I understood also from hyatt's posts that you need to add 3-4 plies to the depth in the logfiles of the IBM site to get the real depth. 3)hitting a deeper ply does not mean being faster because different programs do different extensions. There is no competition who is going to search deeper in plies or faster in nodes/second but who is going to play better so I think that all the discussion about when PC's are going to be faster than deeper blue is irrelevant. Uri
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