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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: blass uri

Date: 00:58:13 03/02/00

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On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:

>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>
>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>guns.
>>
>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>Do the math:
>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>
>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>
>>180 months equals 15 years
>>
>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>2015)
>
>What about today?
>
>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>on the IBM site.
>
>Ed

1)The definition of fast searcher is by nodes/second and not by plies/second so
it is logical to ignore the plies/depth for the prediction in the subject.

2)I understood also from hyatt's posts that you need to add 3-4 plies to the
depth in the logfiles of the IBM site to get the real depth.

3)hitting a deeper ply does not mean being faster because different programs do
different extensions.

There is no competition who is going to search deeper in plies or faster in
nodes/second but who is going to play better so I think that all the discussion
about when PC's are going to be faster than deeper blue is irrelevant.

Uri



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