Author: Frank Schubert
Date: 03:08:07 03/02/00
Go up one level in this thread
On March 01, 2000 at 13:41:46, Andrew Dados wrote: >On March 01, 2000 at 06:31:01, Frank Schubert wrote: > >>On February 29, 2000 at 13:20:35, Masciulli Gianluigi wrote: >> >>>On February 29, 2000 at 12:48:07, Tony Hedlund wrote: >>> >>>>On February 29, 2000 at 09:52:06, Masciulli Gianluigi wrote: >>>> >>>>tscp15's 90.2% against 1700 = 2062 >>>>fortress161's 96.9% against 1700 = 2232 >>>>golem01's 0% against 1700 is < 1000 >>>>fortress16's 58.8% against tscp15 indicates a difference with 64 points, >>>>2179-2115. >>> >>>thanks tony for your answer. >>> >>>ok ... that's the easy part but ... >>>you see you listed frotress TWICE with perf. 2232 and 2179-2115. >>>I need the global performance. >>> >>>> >>>>>One more: I'd like to have extimes about probability that performances match the >>>>>true elo on the base of games played (ssdf Like)... any matematician out there? >>>> >>>>This question I do not understand, sorry. >>> >>>I'll try to explay this better: >>> >>>if I play 1 billion game and the result between prog.A (elo ??) and Prog.B .. >>>prog.C prog.D (and all have elo 2000) is esactly 50% >>>I can say that the elo of prog A in that set of programs is almost esactly >>>2000. >>>but what about the same result after only 50 games. >>>may be there is some difference between elo and perf. in this case. >>>may be i can say, in this case that the elo of the program A is 2000 with an >>>error margin of 50 point (in other words there is probability .9 that the true >>>elo is within the range 1950 -> 2050). >>>I want to calc the error margin. >>>I hope is clear now. >>> >>>gianluigi >> >> >>Hi, >> >>in a few days you can download my program ELOStat which was used to calculate >>the statistics of the Cadaqués tourney (look at >>http://www.computerschach.de/tourn/frank01.htm) >>ELOStat also gives the error margins you mentioned. I will post ist here, >>when I am ready. >> >>Frank > >I assume you know then the formula to calculate the error margin(s), given >probability... That is, elo = x +/- margin with probability of y%. I am looking >for function y%=F(margin,number of games,etc). Can you post it here? Thanks in >advance. > >-Andrew- Well, the program is able to give 68%, 95%, and 99.7% confidence intervals, which are normally used in statistics (they are also called 1_sigma, 2_sigma and 3_sigma margins, where sigma is the so called error of the mean value). More effort is required if you want to calculate any confidence intervals (e.g. 90% or 75 %). I will give some more details when I post the download address. Frank
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