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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 15:26:09 03/02/00

Go up one level in this thread


On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:

>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>
>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>guns.
>>
>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>Do the math:
>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>
>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>
>>180 months equals 15 years
>>
>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>2015)
>
>What about today?
>
>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>on the IBM site.
>
>Ed


No...  you are mis-reading the logs.  When you see depth=10/5, that means
10 ply (full width + extensions) in the software, another 5 plies + everything
but singular extensions in the chess engine.  When you look at those numbers,
we are getting crushed in search depth.  10(5) means 15 plies full-width, no
null-move or anything, + their extensions.

This was covered when we were discussing the DB logs.  I confirmed this
point with two different DB team members to be sure we were understanding the
(n) number correctly.  Looking at the logs, the hardware searches 4-6 plies
depending on the base software search depth.  When you see 11(6) that is a
full-width 17 ply search, which is awesome.

Also notice that you can 'intuit' this by looking at their PVs.  The hardware
doesn't provide PV information, so any PV they show is software-search only.
When they show depth=10(5) in most cases, their PV is just 10 plies long,
except for tactical positions where extensions kick in.  But the remaining
4-5-6 plies of the PV are never shown as the hardware doesn't have a way of
supplying them.



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