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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Dave Gomboc

Date: 00:44:48 03/03/00

Go up one level in this thread


On March 02, 2000 at 18:26:09, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:
>
>>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>>
>>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>>guns.
>>>
>>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>>Do the math:
>>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>>
>>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>>
>>>180 months equals 15 years
>>>
>>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>>2015)
>>
>>What about today?
>>
>>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>>on the IBM site.
>>
>>Ed
>
>
>No...  you are mis-reading the logs.  When you see depth=10/5, that means
>10 ply (full width + extensions) in the software, another 5 plies + everything
>but singular extensions in the chess engine.  When you look at those numbers,
>we are getting crushed in search depth.  10(5) means 15 plies full-width, no
>null-move or anything, + their extensions.
>
>This was covered when we were discussing the DB logs.  I confirmed this
>point with two different DB team members to be sure we were understanding the
>(n) number correctly.  Looking at the logs, the hardware searches 4-6 plies
>depending on the base software search depth.  When you see 11(6) that is a
>full-width 17 ply search, which is awesome.

Double-check that.  11(6): 17-ply search, yes.  _full-width_ 17-ply search, I
don't think so.  The top of the software search is full-width, the bottom of the
software search is selective, and the hardware search is full-width again.  At
least, that is my understanding.  The interesting question is how many of the 11
in software were full-width... and my recollection is that the answer is not 11.

Dave



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