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Subject: Re: Probabilities

Author: Bas Hamstra

Date: 04:47:43 11/07/97

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>I continued playing 'Andreas in wonderland' and now I can enter the
>following parameters in my little program:
>
>- Number of rounds
>- Number of participants
>- Probability for winning of every program against every other program
>- Overall Draw Probability
>
>The program plays hundrets or thousands of virtual tournaments and
>considers the points and the sum of the opponent's points after every
>round and at the end of a tournament.
>
>The program does NOT consider the color (that means that the probabilty
>to win is equal, no matter if a program plays white or black) and it
>plays no real swiss tournament (that means that the pairing is always
>1st-2nd, 3rd-4th and so on, no matter if two participants had already
>played a match). Because this program is only made to give a few
>statistical numbers I think this doesn't matter too much.
>
>Now you can
>- call me 'Andreas in wonderland' again (Chris Whittington) :) or
>- ask questions about certain probabilities (all others).

Sounds good. Ok, I have the following questions:

- How often does the best program win the tournament
- How often the second best
- How often does the average "middlefield" program win it
- What is the chance to NOT end up in the top 3 for the best program
- Idem ditto not top 5

- Same info with 22 rounds in stead of 11

Good idea, to simulate!


Regards,
Bas Hamstra.



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