Author: Andreas Mader
Date: 06:29:31 11/07/97
Go up one level in this thread
>Sounds good. Ok, I have the following questions: > Thank you! Before I answer your questions, a few 'setups': I took the ELO rating of the first 30 programs of the new SSDF rating list. Then I added the ratings 2200, 2100, 2000 and 1800 to simulate 'weeker' programs and to complete the list of the 34 participants. This was the base of my calculations. The draw probability was set to 0.25. 5000 'virtual tournaments' were played for every answer.... :) (5000 is not very much! Sorry for that but my computer at the office is very slow, maybe the 'real' values are a little different from the ones I write here.) >- How often does the best program win the tournament It wins 28.3% of all tournaments. >- How often the second best It wins 14.8% of all tournaments. >- How often does the average "middlefield" program win it I took Nimzo 3 :), placed on rank 18 in the SSDF list with 2384 ELO: It wins 0.9% of all tournaments. >- What is the chance to NOT end up in the top 3 for the best program 49.3% >- Idem ditto not top 5 32.8% > >- Same info with 22 rounds in stead of 11 > How often wins the best program: 36.6% How often wins the 2nd best: 17.9% How often midfield program: 0.4% Top program not in top 3: 33.6% Top program not in top 5: 19.4% >Good idea, to simulate! > > >Regards, >Bas Hamstra. Heading for the weekend! Best wishes Andreas
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