Author: stuart taylor
Date: 13:14:15 08/31/00
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On August 31, 2000 at 15:59:44, Dann Corbit wrote: >On August 31, 2000 at 15:41:39, stuart taylor wrote: > >>If you had D.O. 200 plies brute force for every move, I think there can be no >>question about it, that GM will always lose! If one time it was a draw, the GM >>could be justly proud of himself, even if he was world champion. >>I can't imagine how much mhz that would be, though. >>S.Taylor (maybe 1 with 6-700 naughts). > >A trillion terahertz computer could come nowhere close to 200 plies. Probably >closer to 20. Consider this little list: >White(1): perft 2 >total moves=400 time=0.00 >White(1): perft 3 >total moves=8902 time=0.01 >White(1): perft 4 >total moves=197281 time=0.29 >White(1): perft 5 >total moves=4865609 time=6.60 >White(1): perft 6 >total moves=119060324 time=164.04 > >Draw yourself a graph. Imagine what time looks like at 20. That search would >play infallible chess, but most real searches don't work like that. They >examine the square root of the node counts. So work out about what it will look >like at 20, and take the square root. You will still find that the square root >of a truly ridiculous number is still a ridiculous number. > >With massive pruning, it might get deeper, but then it would be open to errors >like null move zugzwang situations, etc. > >Dann Corbit makes a prophecy: >"Computers will *never* (and I do mean never, ever, ever no matter how many >years forward -- millions of years, billions of years, trillions of years) fully >examine 200 plies forward at tournament time controls of 40/2." I said much much more than a trllion terrahertz! And if you multiply 35x35x35 200 times, I think that should be about 200 plies. S.Taylor
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