Author: Don Dailey
Date: 08:42:08 12/29/97
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On December 29, 1997 at 01:34:35, Bruce Moreland wrote: > >On December 28, 1997 at 23:38:12, Don Dailey wrote: > >>I did a really interesting study once several years ago. I took >>a small problem set and adjusted the weights to predict the Swedish >>ratings of several programs. You can use various methods to do >>this, I used a genetic algorithm. I was able to come up with a >>formula which was very accurate, within about 10 points for ANY >>program that was involved in the test. > >If you produced a formula that would accurately predict the Elo of 75% >of the known programs, would it accurately predict the Elo of the >remaining 25% without tweaking it? > >bruce That's a great question. This one could be tested without too much trouble if I were to repeat the test. I have a feeling the important thing is to start with as many programs as possible. If I tuned to 2 or 3 programs it would not predict well because it could take too many liberties to get those ratings just right. But if I started with many it might be "forced" to come up with realistic weights that reflected some kind of reality. But of course with more programs the procedure would probably not do as well with the worst case, it's unlikely I would get within 10 rating points with all my initial testee's. -- Don
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