Author: Roger D Davis
Date: 14:44:30 12/24/00
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They should play a set number of games, say 5 or ten. At the end of that tournament, if the results are not statistically significant, they should play on until the results ARE statistically significant. If you look at all past world champions, it appears that there have seldom been enough games played to make a statistically significant champion. Sad, but true. The world championship is rather like Junior 6 v. Shredder and one program coming out on top by one game. We all know that proves nothing. I do not mind there being someone called "world champion," but I think there should also be a "statistically significant champion." Only the statistically significant champion can be the real champion. Roger On December 24, 2000 at 13:11:49, Christophe Theron wrote: >On December 24, 2000 at 09:09:27, Jeroen Noomen wrote: > >>My congratulations to Vishy Anand, for winning the >>FIDE World Championship 2000! >> >>3,5-0,5 in the final against Shirov, that leaves no >>discussion whatsoever. Anand was the best, remained >>unbeaten and scored a clear victory in the final. >>Well done! >> >>Jeroen > > >I am still absolutely amazed that a World Championship can be decided this way. > >A score of 3.5-0.5 is not statistically significant, not even with a low >confidence. > >It is now clear, at least amongst the experienced computers chess operators, >that such a result means NOTHING. > >I think that the computer chess community is on some topics much more advanced >than the human chess community. For example the human chess community has >adopted the ELO rating system, but still ignores most of the basic rules of this >system (margin of error, level of confidence). The computer chess community is >aware of these rules, and you can find these parameters published in the SSDF >rating list for example. > > > > Christophe
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