Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 06:45:24 05/15/01
Go up one level in this thread
On May 15, 2001 at 06:03:11, Graham Laight wrote: >I still say it's quicker and easier to draw a graph of strength of players >plotted against proportion of draws. > >Since I don't have a copy of chessbase, the graph below is based on guesswork >rather than actual study - but here's a quick example of what it would probably >look like: > >Percentage Of Draws > > >100 | * > | * > | * > | * > | * >75 | * > | * > | * > | * > | * >50 | * > | * > | * > | * > | * >25 | * > |* > | > | > | >0 | > ------------------------------------------------------ > 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 > > Elo Rating > > >If this were accurate, the maximum possible Elo rating would be 3500, because >above this level, almost all games would end in draws. > >From this, one can calculate when computers will be able to play at the maximum >level. If normal (ie not Deeper Blue!) computers advance at about 100 Elo every >5 years, and they are currently at 2600, then they need another 900 Elo to play >perfect chess - which they will be doing in 45 years. > >And what ply depth will be needed to achieve this? If they advance 1 ply every >3 years, then they will advance 15 ply in 45 years. > >So - in conclusion - to solve chess (or at least to play "perfect" chess), >computers need to search 15 ply deeper than they do now (and probably increase >their knowledge at the same rate as they're currently doing). > I don't like that definition of "perfect". Just because they are nearly unbeatable, they won't be playing "perfect" at all... You won't play perfect until you can prove a move from the starting position is a forced win, or else prove that all are forced draws. >Again - all the figures in the previous 3 paragraphs are my guesses rather than >rigorous studies. Anybody who knows the numbers more accurately is welcome to >correct the figures. > >-g >
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