Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 06:49:24 05/15/01
Go up one level in this thread
On May 15, 2001 at 07:56:49, Graham Laight wrote: >On May 15, 2001 at 06:26:14, Ralf Elvsén wrote: > >>On May 15, 2001 at 06:03:11, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>I still say it's quicker and easier to draw a graph of strength of players >>plotted against proportion of draws. >> >>Since I don't have a copy of chessbase, the graph below is based on guesswork >>rather than actual study - but here's a quick example of what it would probably >>look like: >> >>Percentage Of Draws >> >> >>100 | * >> | * >> | * >> | * >> | * >>75 | * >> | * >> | * >> | * >> | * >>50 | * >> | * >> | * >> | * >> | * >>25 | * >> |* >> | >> | >> | >>0 | >> ------------------------------------------------------ >> 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 >> >> Elo Rating >> >> > >Check out this: > >http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ratings/Draws.jpg > > >Ralf, > >Thanks very much for drawing this work to my attention! > >Since it's done by the chairman of the USCF (home page = >http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ ), I think we can assume that it's a good quality >study. > >The exciting thing (from the point of view of "solving chess" or "playing >perfect chess") point of view is that, above 2200 Elo, the proportion of draws >shoots up very sharply above 2200 Elo - implying that the limits of chess are >being approached quite rapidly now. > >Just to describe the graph (which you can see for yourself by following Ralf's >link above) approximately, the draw proportion starts at 15% (presumably because >players are unable to obtain a win), drops to 8% at 650 Elo, rises steadily from >there to 25% at 2200 Elo, then shoots up rapidly to 48% at 2700 Elo. > >This would imply that the limit of chess is less than 3700 (because the graph is >rising sharply at the end) - so my original guess (2 posts back) of 3500 was not >too bad! > >-g I think the conclusion is wrong. Draws are offered and accepted for reasons beyond "this position is known or proven to be a draw." The higher your rating, the more likely you are to win an event before the last round, then offer a quick draw to take the money and run... Or in a match, to save mental energy in a drawish-looking opening. I'll bet there are more draws (at the 2600+ level) that are 30 moves are less than there are draws of 31 moves and longer. Which means the conclusion about 2600+ players nearly playing perfect is badly flawed.
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