Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 20:33:33 04/23/98
Go up one level in this thread
On April 23, 1998 at 22:52:18, Don Gaetke wrote: > >On April 23, 1998 at 20:12:27, Robert Hyatt wrote: > > >>>>A couple of points: (1) Until the "IBM" days, information about the >>>>internals was readily available. A chapter of a book here, a journal >>>>article there... chiptest/deep thought/deep thought 2 and so forth were >>>>well written-up. (2) today, there's little chance of a micro beating a >>>>top-5 GM in a match. It is unlikely in a single game, unless the match >>>>is long enough (and I'm *not* talking about blitz games, there they have >>>>a chance).. >>> >>>Actually, I was referring to the "performance" on the board. >>>Information on DeepeBlue2 as a chess player has been scant, which is >>>consistant with the overall history of the project. >>> >>>Average GM's are already threatened today at tournament level, in 6 >>>months to a year the top 5 will be as well thanks to some serious speed >>>increases just over the horizon. >>> >>>Don >> >> >> >>IMHO, you should change 6 months to a year to 6-10 years. The Micros >>are *not* a factor of two away from playing evenly with GM players yet. >>Not even close... > >Oh? Well don't tell GM Larry C. that, or any of the "weak" GM's who >lost at AEGON then. > you are aware that Aegon was not the usual 40/2 or 40/2.5 hour time control? that makes a difference... >> >>We already have a PII/400 at the office. Intel says 450 late this >>year, and (possibly) Merced next year. We already have machines as >>fast as merced... they are spelled "alpha"... no one's *close* to a >>GM yet... > >There is something in the works related to copper technology as a "new >conductor" for computer hardware. The result will be an entirely new >level of speed formerly unheard of in PCs. The claim is that 1000mhz+ >CPU's speeds will be easily obtainable in the near future, i.e. within >12-24 months. > >Don "easily" is the wrong word. there are other serious problems to overcome besides propogation delays across gates. IE GAs was touted as the same type of breakthrough as the new IBM copper announcement. But running things at 1ghz is a different animal from running something at 500mhz... surface effects become frightening when you talk about microwave frequencies. Note that radar antennaes don't use coax cable.. they use "waveguides" because cable won't work at those frequencies... I think this is going to be interesting of course, but DEC already has gigahertz stuff running. prototype G4 chips are nearing 1ghz as well, with at least one running at 800mhz right now. But those are only a factor of 2 or 3 beyond where we are now, discounting the fact that we have no memory faster today than 10 years ago. And a factor of 2-3 won't turn today's programs into tomorrow's super-GM players... you only have to watch them play to see how little they understand excepting for tactics...
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