Author: Uri Blass
Date: 02:23:21 07/03/01
Go up one level in this thread
On July 03, 2001 at 03:02:46, Peter Berger wrote: >On July 03, 2001 at 00:08:22, Christoph Fieberg wrote: > >>In the Fritz - Junior match I wondered how likely it is that a (at least) 5 >>point lead during the match will be (at least) egalized at the end (provided >>both players are equal in strength). >> >>I simulated 200.000 matches with my program and such an event occurred only 961 >>times! The likelihood therefore is a mere 0,48%! (Chance 208 : 1) >> >>Was in spite of such a result the devolution of the Fritz - Junior match really >>random? I could understand if it is questioned. >> >>Regards, >>Christoph > >Could you calculate another one,please ? Given the fact that one program won >_the first five_ games how likely is it that the loser will win the match ? > >This should definitely be even worse. > >pete I do not understand why do you think that it is even worse. The opposite if I know that the 5-0 is exactly after 5 games there are many games to get equal result. If I do not know the number of games then it may by 12-7 when there are not many games to finish the match. We also need some assumption for the probablity of white to win and the probability of draw in order to calculate the previous calculation and the calculation that you ask to do. Uri
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