Author: Christoph Fieberg
Date: 06:18:14 07/03/01
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On July 03, 2001 at 03:02:46, Peter Berger wrote: >On July 03, 2001 at 00:08:22, Christoph Fieberg wrote: > >>In the Fritz - Junior match I wondered how likely it is that a (at least) 5 >>point lead during the match will be (at least) egalized at the end (provided >>both players are equal in strength). >> >>I simulated 200.000 matches with my program and such an event occurred only 961 >>times! The likelihood therefore is a mere 0,48%! (Chance 208 : 1) >> >>Was in spite of such a result the devolution of the Fritz - Junior match really >>random? I could understand if it is questioned. >> >>Regards, >>Christoph > >Could you calculate another one,please ? Given the fact that one program won >_the first five_ games how likely is it that the loser will win the match ? > >This should definitely be even worse. > >pete The likelihood for a comeback *after* a 0-5 defeat in the first five games is rather high (conditioned likelihood!) However the likelihhod that a whole match goes exactly like this: 5-0 lead *and* then at least equal at the end is very low. It occurred only 55 times in 200.000 matches (0.0275%) Christoph
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