Author: Christoph Fieberg
Date: 07:40:33 07/03/01
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On July 03, 2001 at 00:08:22, Christoph Fieberg wrote: >In the Fritz - Junior match I wondered how likely it is that a (at least) 5 >point lead during the match will be (at least) egalized at the end (provided >both players are equal in strength). > >I simulated 200.000 matches with my program and such an event occurred only 961 >times! The likelihood therefore is a mere 0,48%! (Chance 208 : 1) > >Was in spite of such a result the devolution of the Fritz - Junior match really >random? I could understand if it is questioned. > >Regards, >Christoph After this surprising result I investigated the Kasparov-Kramnik match. What is the likelihood that a 2849 rated player does not win a single game against a 2770 rated player and even is defeated 2-0 after 15 games? The outcome was shocking! The chance is only 1:1439 (likelihood 0.0695%!). This results changes my view on the outcome of the Fritz-Junior match. Nevertheless it is really astonishing what happened in these matches. Christoph
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