Author: Ulrich Tuerke
Date: 09:32:25 09/04/01
Go up one level in this thread
On September 04, 2001 at 10:59:24, Uri Blass wrote: >On September 04, 2001 at 09:17:30, Ulrich Tuerke wrote: > >>On September 04, 2001 at 04:36:58, Jouni Uski wrote: >> >>>On September 04, 2001 at 04:13:47, Chris Taylor wrote: >>> >>>>On September 04, 2001 at 02:26:23, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>> >>>>>Bob has obviously abandoned 2 weeks version cycle, which is good!! I prefer >>>>>to get new version, when it's really better than old. E.g. in Junior's case >>>>>after 1,5 years! >>>>> >>>>>Jouni >>>> >>>>I have a feeling there will be more versions! >>>>If I had a large amount of money, and the betting shop was a tad nearer. I >>>>would, have a flutter. But then again, I am not a betting man? >>>> >>>>In auto232 matches I have 18.10 from bob's site doing rather well. It seems to >>>>be getteing stronger with each release. >>>> >>>I am not so sure. Look at this rating list from Herrmann: >>> >>>Crafty 17.14 2563 300 259 18 23 268.0 89.3 2207 >>>Crafty 18.10 2561 372 309 43 20 330.5 88.8 2212 >>>Crafty 17.12 2516 192 149 27 16 162.5 84.6 2225 >>>Crafty 18.07 2492 336 261 41 34 281.5 83.8 2211 >>> >>>Only sure thing is, that 18.7 was weak... >> >>Sure ??? Are you kidding ? Look at the error bars. >>These results are very well compatible with the statement that Crafty 18.07 is >>the strongest version. The statistics is far too poor to say anything. >>Uli > >No > >2563-23>2492+41 so it seems clear that 17.14 is better than 18.07 even in the >optimistic assumption for 18.07 and the passimistic assumption for 17.14 The numbers, which you are quoting, are not the error bars but the number of games with "=" and "-" result,( if I got this right from Andreas' page). I think that the error bars for 200 - 300 games (like above) are still of the order 60 - 70 ELO. It seems that Andreas has not given them. With this assumption I obtain 2492 + 60 > 2563 - 60 Okay ? > >I believe that these results clearly suggest that 18.07 is not the strongest >version. > >Uri
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