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Subject: Re: A pondering idea... [a more clear {hopefully} example]

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 07:31:04 09/27/01

Go up one level in this thread


On September 27, 2001 at 09:39:22, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On September 27, 2001 at 03:59:57, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On September 26, 2001 at 21:45:46, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>><snipped>
>>>Here is the problem..   I had to explain this to Komputer Korner a few years ago
>>>as well...
>>>
>>>If you correctly predict your opponent's move at least 50% of the time, or
>>>more, then the way we currently ponder can _not_ be improved on.
>>
>>Not correct.
>>There are ways to improve the pondering but not the way that bdann suggested.
>>
>>For example if your program ponders for the opponent move and fail high and find
>>that it is winning after the fail high then it is possible that the program
>>expect a blunder and it may be better to go back to the root position to see if
>>the opponent has a better move and to ponder for the better move.
>
>
>So?  If you are predicting > 50% of the time, then there is not a thing wrong
>with sticking with this.  It can fail high this iteration, then fail low the
>next one.

I did not say after every fail high but only after you see that you are winning.
it depends on the score.

An extreme example is when you see a forced mate after the expected move.
In this case you can safely stop pondering on the opponent move and ponder on
another move.
If you see a score of +20 pawns for yourself you also can go to ponder for
another move.

I am less sure if it is a good idea to ponder on another move when you see a
score of +5 but if you can be sure in 99.9% that you win after seeing +5 score
then it can also be a good idea because taking a risk in 0.1% of the cases is
not a big risk and the risk that the opponent does not play the predicted move
is bigger.
>
>
>>
>>Another idea is in cases that the opponent goes for a long think(for example 30
>>minutes at 40/2 hours game) for one move and in this case it may be better to
>>stop pondering after the program pondered for enough time and to start pondering
>>for the next best move or for the root position.
>
>
>Again, this doesn't work.  Given the choice of pondering a move I believe will
>be correct over 50% of the time, vs pondering two different moves for 1/2 of
>the time, I'll take the former _every_ time.  And get my _own_ deep search in
>since my opponent thinks something is worth a deep think also.  So long as I
>predict > 50% of the time there is _no_ better methodology.

The difference between 3 minutes of search and 6 minutes of search is more than
1/2 ply assuming a branching factor of 3(log6/log3 plies).

The difference between 30 minutes of search and 33 minutes of search is
smaller(log33/log30 plies).

sacrificing log6/log3 plies for searching another move may be a bad idea but
sacrificing only log33/log30 plies for the same target is a better deal.

Uri



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