Author: J. Wesley Cleveland
Date: 09:10:58 09/28/01
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On September 26, 2001 at 21:45:46, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >Here is the problem.. I had to explain this to Komputer Korner a few years ago >as well... > >If you correctly predict your opponent's move at least 50% of the time, or >more, then the way we currently ponder can _not_ be improved on. [snip] This all assumes that saving time is linearly equivalent to playing better, which is not true. A simple counterexample is asymmetric time limits, e.g. you have 1 second to move and your opponent has 1 day to move. If you ponder only one move, you will often make a bad move when you do not predict correctly. More relevantly, when you are pondering a move past the time when you would move instantly, you are no longer saving time by pondering that move more deeply, and the question becomes: Is the increased probability of choosing the right move by pondering more deeply more valuable than the time you might save if you pondered another move ?
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