Author: Ralf Elvsén
Date: 05:14:46 10/25/01
Go up one level in this thread
On October 25, 2001 at 06:57:29, Mike Hood wrote: >On October 24, 2001 at 22:03:49, Stephen A. Boak wrote: > >>On October 24, 2001 at 11:43:18, Joshua Lee wrote: >> >>>For Starters If Deep Fritz were that Magical 2700+ number Like the SSDF Claims >>>Then Huebner wouldn't have Drawn Every Game of their 6 game Match >>>Secondly With All Do Respect No Commercial Program Has Played As Many Humans As >>>The Deep Thought/Blue Programs and Also The Number of Games Vs. Rating Average >>>Is Unequal (Not as many games as Deep Thought) If you Suggest that programs are >>>So Strong why Then Hasn't One of the Top Commercial's Put up so much Money as to >>>Play Against a Top 10 Opponent and Not a Couple of Unknowns? >>> >>>Tiger Didn't Beat All GM's and I don't think they were very Strong GM's someone >>>even mentioned that Tiger was Lost in One Position. That may not say Much but I >>>would Consider Rebel's Achievement or Deep Junior's Much More Impressive. >>>Rebel because of So many Games against Strong and well Known GM's Like Rhode and >>>Scherbakov and Deep Junior for Beating GM Leko and Heubner , Drawing Everyone >>>else Besides Kramnik and Lautier. >>> >>>8 Games are not really enough and 1 Tournament By no means makes a Computer a GM >>>, They Can't Get The Title anyway, I would Like for this to be a possibility >>>Then maybe someone would Try for their program to get it and we could Look to >>>FIDE instead of SSDF . I hate that the list should be lowered by upto 200 >>>points even by their own estimate the link is on their page. >>> >>>Another thing Tiger's Rating On an 866 Compared to the Speed Difference of the >>>SSDF would Still Point to the SSDF's Given Rating for Tiger to be Wrong. >>> >>>Tiger is 2703 on a 1200 >>>While 2788 against an average 2497FIDE On a Slower 866 Hmm Somebody is wrong >>>Either all those players were lying about their rating or Could it be that the >>>SSDF Is Off ... >> >>Curiousity leads me to pose some questions to thoughtful posters: >> >>Ever hear of natural variation? Do you think that a 2497 player plays at 2497 >>strength (whatever that means) on each move, and across each game, no matter the >>day or time or opponent or how well he is feeling? >> >>Ever hear of the uncertainty of measurement? What is the level of confidence >>that a 2497 player is *actually* (whatever that means) a 2497 strength player? >> >>Can you accept random chance (natural variation) as a reason for occasional >>exceptional results for programs or humans? >> >>Can you accept that measurements are all subject to some level of uncertainty, >>some level of confidence less than certainty? >> >>If so, the above statement (prior poster) makes little sense. >> >>If not, I understand the dilemma and recommend a good introductory book on >>statistics. >> >>Opinions are welcome, I have no problem with them. But do posters investigate >>and try to learn about the subject they comment on, or are they curious to >>discover what they may be missing in their view of things? >> >>Math is not a solution to everything. It is an often useful tool. It both has >>its uses and its limitations. But to ignore it completely seems silly. Do >>posters know they ignore some basic uses of math (often statistics) when they >>post? Do they care? >> >>Just curious. >> >>--Steve > >Thanks, Steve. I often have thoughts like yours when I read posts with titles >like "Beowulf is better than Deep Fritz on a 1.6 Ghz PC". > >What is the statistical background of the ELO rating system? Are there any >recommendable URLs where I can read up on the subject? Check out http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/research.html "A Comprehensive Guide to Chess Ratings" is probably partly readable for most people. If memory serves me right the paper from American Chess Journal is even better, but that link seems to be broken now(?). I've been told that if >two players are rated less than 1600 points apart there is a statistical chance >that the weaker player will beat the stronger player "occasionally", but I think >I'd have to catch Gary on a VERY bad day. Don't show too much respect for mathematical models just because they have fancy formulas. They are just a crude description of reality. The Elo-model in particular... Ralf
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