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Subject: Re: Perfect Chess Is Approximately ELO 4000

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 06:41:16 02/27/02

Go up one level in this thread


On February 27, 2002 at 09:09:05, Uri Blass wrote:

>On February 27, 2002 at 06:33:17, Sune Fischer wrote:
>
>>On February 26, 2002 at 14:35:32, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>The difference in elo in order to win a match 2*10^1000-1 is certainly finite
>>>and I believe that choosing a random move is going to be enough for better score
>>>because I believe that it is possible to get at least a draw in less than 500
>>>moves and the probability to be lucky and choose every one of them is more  than
>>>1/100 in every move because I believe that the number of moves in every ply is
>>>going to be less than 100 when the opponent choose the perfect strategy.
>>
>>Yes I agree, but much depends on what the *chess-tree* really lookes like.
>>Maybe black has a forced draw in 30 moves? Maybe the forced draw is really 2000
>>moves? As you have previously pointet out yourself, the longer the game, the
>>greater the chance that the weaker player will make a mistake. This will
>>probably correlate directly to the rating of the perfect player, can he drag the
>>game on forever his rating will be much higher.
>>
>>>It suggest the following question
>>>suppose that A has rating 0(I believe that the player who choose random move
>>>will have rating that is lower than 0).
>>>
>>>suppose B wins against A 2*10^1000-1
>>>
>>>What is going to be the rating of B based on the elo formula?
>>>This rating is probably an upper bound for the rating of the perfect player
>>>if you assume that the perfect player plays only against A.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Why should it be an upper bound?
>>Your rating should be a constant no matter who you play, if your opponent is
>>weak you will win more games, but your expected score will also be that much
>>higher.
>>
>>-S.
>
>The rating is dependent in the opponet that the perfect player chooses to play.

No it is not, look at the formula, it is a normal distribution.

>The perfect player may get 100% against my program on p800 because my program is
>a deteministic program that always does the same mistake so if you assume the
>perfect player plays only against my program then the perfect player is going to
>get infinite rating.

Your program is deterministic by your own words, so must score even worse than
one doing random moves.

>The perfect player may get 100% against a player with a rating of 2000 when the
>same player is going to fail to get 100% against a player that is clearly weaker
>but not deterministic.


Please do not ignore the small differences in probability, they are important.
A 2000 elo player may be beaten by 10^30:1 and a 1000 elo player by 10^35:1, it
should all add up to the same rating for the perfect player, that is how the elo
table works.

>Uri

-S.



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