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Subject: Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 09:27:07 04/22/02

Go up one level in this thread

On April 22, 2002 at 12:12:48, Dana Turnmire wrote:

>I have a book entitled "How Computers Play Chess" by David Levy and Monty
>Newborn (1991).  In the first chapter (page 7) there is a list of grandmasters
>and programmers who predict the year a chess computer will defeat the human
>world chess champion in a match.  I don't consider the short match between
>Kasparov and the IBM super computer to be an "official" match under normal world
>championship conditions.  So as far as I am concerned the question is still
>open.
>
>Here is the list of estimates of the year in which a computer will defeat the
>world human chess champion.

I have this book, I still enjoy reading it from time to time.

>
>Year
>
>1992  Gyula Horvath; Monty Newborn.
>
>1993  John McCarthy.
>
>1994  I.M. Hans Berliner; Marty Hirsch; Feng-hsiung Hsu.
>
>1995  Murray Campbell; Larry Kaufmann; David Kittinger; I.M. Danny Kopec, Donald
>Michie; David Slate; I.M. Mike Valvo.
>
>1997  John Stanback.
>
>1998  Kevin O'Connell.
>
>1999  Ed Felton; Tom Pronk; Sidney Samole; Claude Shannon; Jos Uiterwijk.
>
>2000  Robert Hyatt; G.M. Kevin Spraggett; Victor Vikhrev; Jaap van den Herik.
>

I forgot about this prediction by Dr. Hyatt.  Interesting?


>2001  Jurg Nievergelt; Mark Taylor.
>
>2002  I.M. Julio Kaplan.
>
>2005  Richard Lang; Pierre Nolot; Ard van Bergen.
>

Good guess by Lang, but not likely, this would have to be a DB97 type victory.


>2008  Harry Nelson.

This is a good guess, only the top GM's with lots of preparation will prevail.

>
>2010  Don Daily; Ossi Weiner.

It should be all over but the crying at this time.

>
>2011  Lars Hjorth.
>
>2013  Tony Scherzer.
>
>2014  I.M. David Levy.
>
>2020  Tony Marsland.
>
>2025  Dap Hartmann.
>
>2030  Franz Morsch.

Amazing that Fritz has a match pending.  ;)

>
>2040  Jonathan Schaeffer.
>
>2050  Harm Bakker.
>
>2056  Helmut Horacek.
>
>NEVER  David Cahlander.

• Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion Dann Corbit 12:05:55 04/22/02
  • Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion Keith Ian Price 17:54:28 04/22/02
  • Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion Russell Reagan 12:12:19 04/22/02
  • Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion Dana Turnmire 12:11:57 04/22/02
    • Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion Russell Reagan 12:17:22 04/22/02
• Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion Roy Eassa 10:21:25 04/22/02

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