Author: Chris Carson
Date: 14:19:40 07/09/02
Go up one level in this thread
On July 09, 2002 at 16:35:07, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On July 09, 2002 at 16:10:46, Chris Carson wrote: > >>On July 09, 2002 at 15:26:58, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On July 09, 2002 at 13:38:03, Chris Carson wrote: >>> >>>>On July 09, 2002 at 13:27:31, Chris Carson wrote: >>>> >>>>>On July 09, 2002 at 12:51:35, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On July 09, 2002 at 07:35:55, Chris Carson wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 23:18:00, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 14:49:22, Chris Carson wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 14:26:22, Christophe Theron wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 12:36:01, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 12:15:06, Uri Blass wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 11:32:38, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 08, 2002 at 00:32:42, Christophe Theron wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 06, 2002 at 20:15:06, stuart taylor wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I suspect that search may see that the right move help to push the opponent king >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>closer to the corner relative to the wrong moves and it may be enough. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Yes, that looks like the best thing to try and work on, doesn't it? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>If not, can I ask two questions?: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>1)What should be done during the near future to push computer elo forward as >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>much as possible? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>2)If Deeper blue was really much stronger than todays tops, what was that due >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>to? Better long-term planning? Seeing deeper? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>S.Taylor >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Huge speed. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>It was doing most things worse than the best micro programs, but it was doing it >>>>>>>>>>>>>>so fast that it was eventually stronger. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hum... Let me rephrase for the sensitive people out there. There was nothing >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Deep Blue did better than the best micro programs. But it was so fast that it >>>>>>>>>>>>>>allowed it to hide its defficiencies. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Shit. That's not very diplomatic either. Let's try again: Deep Blue was build >>>>>>>>>>>>>>around a concept outdated by 2 decades but fortunately it was so fast that >>>>>>>>>>>>>>nobody noticed until their creators published their paper. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Oops... OK, once again: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob likes Deep Blue a lot, and that should be a reason good enough to convince >>>>>>>>>>>>>>you that it was well designed. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Christophe ;-) >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Er... excepting one game by Fritz in 1995, when was the last time you saw >>>>>>>>>>>>>any micro beat any predecessor of deep blue? When was the last time _your_ >>>>>>>>>>>>>program beat or drew them? Etc... >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Results speak far louder than prejudice... >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>Results can only prove that they were better than their opponents but this is >>>>>>>>>>>>not the question. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>That is the problem. That was _the_ question. But since the answer is >>>>>>>>>>>clearly known, everybody wants to change the question to something that would >>>>>>>>>>>try to make deep blue look "less" than what it really was. But it was >>>>>>>>>>>unbeatable, considering that it lost to one micro in almost 10 years of >>>>>>>>>>>competition. Nobody _else_ has ever come close to that kind of dominance. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>I think it funny that _now_ the question becomes "was their search optimal"? >>>>>>>>>>>Implying that current micros _are_. Which is a joke. Both have enough holes >>>>>>>>>>>to supply a swiss cheese factory for years. The concept of "optimal" is a >>>>>>>>>>>joke. The concept of "results" is the only scientific way to measure the >>>>>>>>>>>programs against each other. The rest is only subjective opinion. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>There has been a big smoke fog spread around Deep Blue. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>At the time of the Kasparov match, we have been told that: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>1) it was extremely fast. >>>>>>>>>>2) it had much more knowledge than any other program around. >>>>>>>>>>3) it was using some revolutionnary search techniques. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Now that we are able to see more clearly what it was, it turns out that: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>1) its superiority came from its speed. >>>>>>>>>>2) the rest was nothing new, and we are still trying to figure out what part was >>>>>>>>>>actually superior to what the best micro programs are doing. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>I don't think that noticing the above is against the interest of science. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Christophe >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>I will be happy to publish the steps to pass muster for human (including GM's) >>>>>>>>>experiments. One quick note is that any "scientific" test to be valid must be >>>>>>>>>reliable/published so that it can be shown to be repeatable by an independant >>>>>>>>>scientist. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>The DB project was a secret thing, it was very nice " h/w technology", but I do >>>>>>>>>not consider much about DB to be related to science. I am not sure the DB >>>>>>>>>results are reliable, I would expect significantly different results if the >>>>>>>>>Human GM played a few more game (say 100 prep like the 2700 GM had against Rebel >>>>>>>>>recently). I expect DB 1996/97 would get beat by the PC's today in a "true" >>>>>>>>>double blind match/tournament. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>You were doing OK until that last sentence. Do you _really_ think you could >>>>>>>>take _any_ program from 1997, run it at 200M nodes per second, and that program >>>>>>>>would lose to today's micro programs at 1M nodes per second. I _hope_ you don't >>>>>>>>believe that. And yet we _know_ that DB 97 was certainly stronger than any >>>>>>>>1997 micro, because deep thought was stronger than any micro of its time and >>>>>>>>DB took a quantum leap 100X faster than Deep Thought. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Read my last statement again. I said "PC's today", not programs from 97. Yes I >>>>>>>do believe that in a double blind match/tournament the top "PC's (single and >>>>>>>multi-processor chess programs" would beat DB 96/97. I would add that the >>>>>>>Programmers for Fritz, Junior, Tiger, Hiarcs, Shredder, Rebel would have to be >>>>>>>included and independant arbiter used. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>I also agree with Uri's reply: >>>>>>>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?239295 >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>Reread what _I_ said. >>>>>> >>>>>>"if you take _any_ PC program from 1997, and magically find hardware fast enough >>>>>>to make it run at 200M nodes per second, then according to your above statement, >>>>>>you _must_ believe that today's micros would smash that PC in your 'double- >>>>>>blind' match". >>>>>> >>>>>>I don't believe that for a minute. And since DB 97 was stronger than any >>>>>>micro in 1997, you must believe that today's micros are far superior to 1997's >>>>>>micros, based solely on software. That is a crock. Today's programs are >>>>>>stronger. But not a _lot_ stronger, if you run 1997 vs today's programs on >>>>>>equal hardware. Hardware is a _lot_ of the strength gain. And DB had a _lot_ >>>>>>of strength. I don't believe today's programs could beat a 1992 micro program >>>>>>if it were running at 200M nodes per second. That is simply too large a time >>>>>>handicap and the tactics will rule the game. >>>>> >>>>>(1) What was the specific W L D record for Deep Blue 95 against the 1995 >>>>>programs/hw? It was 1 win 1 loss 1 Draw. (2) What was it for Deep Thought W L >>>>>D against the 1997 programs/hw? 0 wins 0 loss 0 draw. Deep Thought did not >>>>>play any of the 1997 pc programs. I do not see actual results to support your >>>>>statements. Please post the games and results for Deep Blue or Deep Thought >>>>>against the 1997 programs. >>>>> >>>>>Yes, the Programs today on today's hardware would smash the programs that Deep >>>>>Thought beat in 1989 on 1989 hardware. In 1989 DT beat Rebel X and Fidelity X >>>>>on 1989 harware, so what, big deal. I am sure any of the top programs on todays >>>>>hardware would have no problem winning. >>>>> >>>>>I do not see any "results" based evidence to support the statement that DB 96/97 >>>>>or Deep Thought (any year) was stonger than programs in 1997. I only hear that >>>>>Deep Thought beat two programs in 1989 and DB was 100 times faster. The >>>>>programs/hw in 1997 were close to DB96/97 and the programs today are better >>>>>than DB 96/97. >>>> >>>>I never said that the 1997 programs needed to be run at 200mnps. You said that. >>>> I think the 1997 programs were close to DB, not that far behind. 1997 version >>>>of Rebel on todays fastest single AMD would beat DB 96/97 in my opinion. DB >>>>96/97 needed the blazing speed, not the commercials. The HW/SW today would beat >>>>DB 96/97. >>> >>> >>>I didn't say you said _anything_ I clearly said that if you took a 1997 >>>program, and put it on "magic hardware" do you _really_ think that a program >>>/ machine from today would beat it, if this "magic hardware" ran the 1997 >>>program at 200M nodes per second? I don't think today's program would stand >>>even a small chance of winning any significant numbers of games at that time >>>handicap. >>> >>>And that time handicap is _exactly_ what 1997 DB would hold over _any_ program >>>of today on today's hardware... >> >>DB nps does not equal Rebel nps or Tiger nps or Fritz nps or ... You can not >>compare nps to nps. I look at results and there are no games (except human vs >>computers) for comparison. > > >You can't compare 1M nps to .5M nps to be sure. But you can _definitely_ >compare 1M nps to 200M nps and conclude something about the outcome. A factor >of 2-3 in NPS is possibly not significant. A factor of 200 is _always_ >significant. OK, I believe that top 5 comercial 97 programs at 200Mnps would beat DB 96/97 and I believe that 2002 programs Fritz, Junior, Tiger, Hiarcs, Rebel, Shredder, Nimzo running at 200Mnps would beat DB 96/97. I also believe that the 97 progs/hw were close to DB 96/97 strength (not speed) and that the 2002 progs/hw are stronger than DB 96/97 in strength (not speed).
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