Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 13:14:46 09/26/02
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On September 26, 2002 at 15:30:42, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >You are wrong because we had only one question. Was Marilyn right for the exact >text of the question. I said no, because the question did not make clear that >the host must _always_ open a door. What question are you refering too, not this one surely: "Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given a choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door-;say No. 1-;and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door-;say No. 3-;which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? " Not only does it say he opens a door, it also says he knows what is behind the doors, and that he will open one with a goat, clearly he is all-knowing. This was her answer: " Here's a good way to visualize the problem. Suppose there are a million doors, and you pick door No.1. Then the host, who knows what's behind the doors and will always avoid the one with prize, opens them all except door No.777,777. You'd switch to that door pretty fast, wouldn't you? Since you choose first, it's unlikely that you picked the door that hides the car. The same logic applies whether there are three doors or a million doors." and it is correct. However your response: "You blew it! Let me explain: If one door is shown to be a loser, that information changes the probability of either remaining choice - neither of which has any reason to be more likely - to 1/2. " is wrong, as Marilyn, I and others have explained to you. The information DOESN'T change if the host KNOWS what is behind the doors, he can ALWAYS pick one with a goat, with 100% certainty, it gives us no information at all on which to change the odds of the two sets. -S.
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