Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 23:27:21 02/07/03
Go up one level in this thread
On February 08, 2003 at 02:13:47, Terry McCracken wrote: >On February 08, 2003 at 01:58:28, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On February 08, 2003 at 01:52:42, Terry McCracken wrote: >>>On February 08, 2003 at 01:38:26, Dann Corbit wrote: >>[snip] >>>>Hsu would create 65536 chips that are 1024 times faster each. It would be a >>>>whipping. I don't even think it would be entertaining, unless you can't stand >>>>Kasparov. >>>> >>>That's a bit of an exaggeration! >>>IMO when Kasparov was at his best, 1992-93 no computer then or now or a Super >>>Deep Blue could have stopped him! >>> >>>Machines are NOT better than the BEST!! >> >>I agree that Kasparov is the best human chess player of all time. >> >>But a machine that is thousands of times faster than Deep Blue would simply be >>unbeatable. Let's suppose 2048 times the compute power (for example). That is >>clearly achievable. >> >>That is 11 fold speed improvement. At 50 ELO per doubling, we would add 550 ELO >>to Deepest Blue. Instead of 2700-2800 approximate performance, it would be >>3300, and Kasparov would get 5% of the points in a match (on average). Which >>means if they played 100 games, Kasparov would get 5 points, if he did not tire >>out. I think probably he would tire and get zero, if he did not score early. > >I don't agree, and there are diminishing returns as you keep increasing speed, >as the tree explodes! So no Super Deep Blue would _not_ be 3300. > >Maybe a quantum computer, with a 1000 Q-Bits?!;-) The technology to achieve 2048 times the performance is definitely here today. They could also be less conservative with their algorithms, having an even larger safety factor. >So after awhile you get 1 point or less for every doubling of speed untill it >makes no difference. That is (of course) a real possibility -- the increase of compute power could trail off in benefit. Unless it gets built, we will never know. I would like to see a battle for computer supremacy. IBM verses Hitachi or something like that. That way, there would be some money to fuel the darn thing. We might see something that could do trillions of nodes per second.
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