Author: Terry McCracken
Date: 23:13:47 02/07/03
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On February 08, 2003 at 01:58:28, Dann Corbit wrote: >On February 08, 2003 at 01:52:42, Terry McCracken wrote: >>On February 08, 2003 at 01:38:26, Dann Corbit wrote: >[snip] >>>Hsu would create 65536 chips that are 1024 times faster each. It would be a >>>whipping. I don't even think it would be entertaining, unless you can't stand >>>Kasparov. >>> >>That's a bit of an exaggeration! >>IMO when Kasparov was at his best, 1992-93 no computer then or now or a Super >>Deep Blue could have stopped him! >> >>Machines are NOT better than the BEST!! > >I agree that Kasparov is the best human chess player of all time. > >But a machine that is thousands of times faster than Deep Blue would simply be >unbeatable. Let's suppose 2048 times the compute power (for example). That is >clearly achievable. > >That is 11 fold speed improvement. At 50 ELO per doubling, we would add 550 ELO >to Deepest Blue. Instead of 2700-2800 approximate performance, it would be >3300, and Kasparov would get 5% of the points in a match (on average). Which >means if they played 100 games, Kasparov would get 5 points, if he did not tire >out. I think probably he would tire and get zero, if he did not score early. I don't agree, and there are diminishing returns as you keep increasing speed, as the tree explodes! So no Super Deep Blue would _not_ be 3300. Maybe a quantum computer, with a 1000 Q-Bits?!;-) So after awhile you get 1 point or less for every doubling of speed untill it makes no difference. Regards, Terry
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