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Subject: Re: Statistical methods and their consequences

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 17:30:26 02/14/03

Go up one level in this thread


On February 14, 2003 at 17:45:51, Jonas Cohonas wrote:

>On February 14, 2003 at 17:25:16, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>
>>On February 14, 2003 at 16:49:56, Jonas Cohonas wrote:
>>
>>>On February 14, 2003 at 16:08:44, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>
>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 14:30:36, Jonas Cohonas wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 09:27:26, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 08:43:12, Bob Durrett wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Excellent points.  The "bottom line" is that SSDF presented their findings
>>>>>>>properly, but the problem is in interpretation.  SSDF cannot be held responsible
>>>>>>>for errors in interpretation.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Bob D.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Wrong conclusion. I tried to explain the points but apparently it's a bit too
>>>>>>difficult. In short : If you use a system of statistics you are not allowed to
>>>>>>make your own presentation. The presentation by SSDF is FALSE. That is the
>>>>>>point. False and unallowed. Instead of 1., 2., 3., they should say 1.-3., not
>>>>>>should, but must, if the differences in the actual results are way smaller than
>>>>>>the error in the tests itself. Is that impossible to understand?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>>>
>>>>>Just because someone has another view than you, dosn't mean that they are wrong
>>>>>by default, the world is not that simple Rolf even though you seem to think it
>>>>>is.
>>>>>
>>>>>The point is that when we are dealing with such margains of errors, it is as
>>>>>impossible for you to state that the list is meaningless as it would be for
>>>>>anyone to claim beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is not, in other words it has
>>>>>meaning to a certain degree and is meaninless to a certain degree and depending
>>>>>on the way you see it it either makes sense or not.
>>>>>
>>>>>I can deduct from the list that Shredder 7 might be better than DF7 and then i
>>>>>can compare their results to mine.
>>>>>
>>>>>Jonas
>>>>
>>>>How can you kow what I am thinking. I will tell you. You are right with your
>>>>"certain degree". But why could you then support the nonsense of a "new number
>>>>one"? You see I am very differentiated. I agree with you. And then I ask why you
>>>>want to accept that out of a certain degree comes the impostering of a new
>>>>number one. In short: tell me how you can make gold out of brass?
>>>
>>>I never claimed to know what you were thinking, i commented on your
>>>"(Meaningless ranking!)" header, to try and explain to you that with the afore
>>>mentioned magains of error, the ssdf results and their value is a very
>>>subjective matter.
>>>
>>>>It is much more complicated than you believe. When you were young didn't you
>>>>learn that you couldn't remain innocent if you called your bigger brother who
>>>>then tore your personal enemy (of your age!) into pieces?
>>>
>>>I personally dealt with them myself :)
>>>
>>>But the same logic
>>>>applies if SSDF has no clear first place but ChessBase makes PR with whole pages
>>>>about "FRITZ the new number one at the world-wide respected independant Swedish
>>>>SSDF". That is no cheating. So who is responsible? I say: SSDF! But the trick
>>>>goes with your "degrees"... So SSDF replies "we are innocent". But as you know,
>>>>that is only possible in fairy tales, that myth of perfect "crimes" [not that
>>>>this topic deals with 'crimes'!].
>>>
>>>This is why common sense was invented, at some point people have to think for
>>>themselves. Like in all aspects of life we learn through our mistakes, if
>>>someone always have to explain to us that we might be on our way to make a
>>>mistake, we would never learn, the believe it or not also applies to compchess
>>>;)
>>>
>>>Example: when i first got interested in computerchess, i had absolutely no
>>>knowledge about it, the first program i owned was Chessmaster 5500 and because
>>>of that, i also thought i had the strongest program available. Then i started
>>>playing with it on chess servers and out went that illusion, today some three
>>>and a half years later i still can't tell you what the strongest progrm is, nor
>>>do i wish to, but i have a pretty good idea and Shredder 7 is not who i think is
>>>the strongest, no matter what the ssdf tells me, but it certaintly is without a
>>>doubt ONE of the strongest (chess engines that is) and by that i mean it is one
>>>of the best 10 progs in the world.
>>>
>>>>I read all the excuses. The most famous is this: but we are no scientists, we
>>>>are only amateurs. If you want, do it yourself, the testings.
>>>>
>>>>I want a single reaction. That the non-scientists do listen to those who
>>>>understand something about statistics.
>>>
>>>Again understanding what they say does not equal agreeing with them.
>>>
>>>>But you know what? At that moment the non-scientists react in a strange manner.
>>>>Instead of listening they begin to fight and teach you (just one expert) how
>>>>damned ignorant you are. And that goes on and on since 1996, since I am in the
>>>>debate. In fact the main people who created the testing details are no way
>>>>amateurs but experts. Shouldn't it be allowed then to criticise 'em? :)
>>>
>>>Sure, but the way i read your critique i don't see you pointing out the option
>>>that you might be wrong, i get the impression that "Rolf has spoken so you are
>>>wrong!"
>>>
>>>You bring up some interesting points all the time, but i would actually enjoy
>>>reading them if you would quit the "you are wrong and this is why....", "FALSE"
>>>and other ways of telling some people that they don't "get it" when what i see
>>>most of the time is people getting what you say, but disagree.
>>>
>>>If chess is complicated life is immensely more complicted, there is no "perfect"
>>>scientific explanation for everything why do you think scientists disagree all
>>>the time, this is why i have a problem with some of your comments here, maybe i
>>>am wrong, but you seem to sometimes have the habbit of presenting your opinions
>>>as actual indebatable facts.
>>>
>>>Regards
>>>Jonas
>>
>>Thaks for these insights. As to your doubts with my appearance I can only answer
>>with a little anecdote. A true story.
>>
>>I was in a famous German forum for CC and I could write in German. I was a
>>member in threads of epic length. Never people accused me of using insulting
>>language - on the contrary! I was insulted for using a _too_ polite and
>>diplomatic vocabulary! Guess what? The insults came from a chess programmer. So
>>I had the _proof_ that people are NOT against me because of my bad laguage. On
>>the contrary I could use an extreme polite and peaceful language and still I was
>>insulted. Conclusion? It is my questioning, it is my reasoning, it is simply the
>>challenge in my messages. So it is the same reaction I described for SSDF. In
>>computerchess certain topics are - independant of language and styles -
>>unwanted. Your own impression is NOT the average reaction on my messages. In
>>short people watch me as if I wanted to reveil things and they want secrecy. But
>>don't ask me why. I don't know!
>>
>>I must admit that I am so deeply in scietific arguing that I have almost lost
>>the understanding of such irrational reactions on me. Perhaps people have a deep
>>tendence for prejudices. Isn't it strange that Ed and I have a peace since long
>>and the "soldiers" and spectators of the past still treat me like a Vietcong. In
>>the German forum I understood that many people prefer buddy groups instead of
>>scientifical arguments. They want to say "Yes, you might be correct with your
>>quests, but leave us alone we want to have a party".
>>
>>And now the hype. Over a year I could write under the name 'Schachfan', which
>>means chess friend or chess freak, and nobody thought about my name. But then a
>>witchhunting began from very few people [you know how the internet functions!]
>>and I left the club.
>>
>>Back to your impression. I cannot accept your reasoning. It is as if you said
>>that I should change my style. Better my personality. Why? I proved that I could
>>be a diplomat. A scientist. In 1996 I gave a 22 y. old rebel. More, I play
>>against comps myself. I'm not a tester. I test my chess if you want.
>>
>>But fact is, my English is very bad, here I agree with you.
>>
>>:)
>>
>>Rolf Tueschen
>
>My impression was not based on bad language as you don't use any (which i
>applaud) nor did i suggest you should change your personalty or style, just that
>i thought that your points would get a wider "audience" and more responses if
>you quit (my impression and based on that only) telling people that they are
>"wrong" or "false", that BTW has a history of not working when you try to
>convince someone of your views ;)
>
>Second the way of stating things like absolute facts like in your "(Meaningless
>ranking!)", it might be meaningless to you, but others might find it to be
>useful in some way you had not thought of, all i am saying is: don't suck up to
>anybody, but don't put them down either. If science has a higher purpose to you,
>that's a small price to pay for respect in return :)
>
>Regards
>Jonas

Very off topic in the meantime, so I will give my last message. You are funny. I
like your messages but you have a general habit to teach me. That is normally
the job of a lay psychologist. [Real psychologists dont do that.]
All what you say is important for all kind of spin doctors. But I am not such a
species. I am a totally free "scientist" in such talks. Also, I don't want to
persuade people. You have no understanding for me. None. This is a pity. Do you
believe that a guy like Walser looks what people think or expect? Did you never
reflect such positions? I write the best that I can! And the rest is to others.
Most debates go about misunderstandings. Or when I had asked questions - since I
am a lay in CC! But when I talk about statistics or other topics, I have enough
knowledge.

From 1996 on, from my first contact in rgcc, I always met people who start to
tell me how I should behave, don't you find that crazy? Is that a CC deficiency?
I am psychologist but I would ever do that.

Next point. Wider, more. Would you say that I get no reactions? :)

And then! People I have enough who talk with me, but I would seek for real
experts. And they are perhaps not here. I mean real scientists. Bob is the only
one I know.

Could we now end this very personal debate? It has a disadvantage because I
don't know you.

Till then,

Rolf Tueschen



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