Author: Graham Laight
Date: 15:00:35 10/31/98
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On October 30, 1998 at 12:35:23, Bela Andrew Evans wrote: >With the Rebel 10 price slashing, I'm beginning to wonder how any >of these computer programmers make any money at all. Think about >the different negative factors now facing them: > >1. more super-strong programs taking a cut of the pie. Used to be >you could count the really good programs on one hand. Chessmaster >would take the low end, while Genius, Rebel, or M. Chess the high >end. Now there's Hiarcs, Fritz, Nimzo, Shredder, Junior, etc. > >2. the pie itself is probably shrinking. Think about it. Who's >going to buy a chess program these days? Most serious chess players >probably already have a number of programs that can crush them >without mercy. Why shell out $100 + for another? And the chess >newcomers that buy Chessmaster and all the other low range products >will buy based on cheap price and good marketing. > >3. pie shrinks some more when you consider that many who might buy >a good program just download crafty or decade 2.0 instead. That >freeware is getting plenty strong. This is good thinking. The best book on Marketing I have read is "The 22 Immutable Laws Of Marketing" By Al Ries and Jack Trout. One of their key principles is that over a long period of time, a market will eventually be shared at 66% to the top product (or service), 33% to the second placed product, and all the others will find themselves fighting for the remaining 1%. In the case of chess computer programs, I think there are at least 2 markets: one for "ordinary" people, and one for people who will want the best program available. I think that for "ordinary" people, CM6000 is an obvious choice, having a nice combination of features and strength. For the strength sector, the competition is tremendous. I have two thoughts on the outcome here: 1. In nature, the specialist always wins (e.g. cheetahs are better at catching gazelles than gazelles are at avoiding being caught by cheetahs, because in this case the cheetah is the specialist). So enthusiastic amateurs are unlikely to become dominant. Compare the massive marketing effort that Ed Schroeder/Rebel makes with Mark Unaike/Hiarcs, for example. 2. If the top programs keep leap-frogging each other at the top of the SSDF list, it might take a long time for a clear winner to emerge.
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